MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/8)

I'm shining the spotlight on the youth for today's NRFI picks, as all 4 of the pitchers I'm writing up have been in the big leagues for no longer than 4 seasons, with 2 of the pitchers being rookies. Both games highlight a top-10 team in terms of NRFI success, with the Marlins leading the league by a wide margin at 64% and the Angels ranking 8^th at 52%, which was pretty surprising to me considering Shohei Ohtani has batted in the 1^st inning of most of their games this season. 3 out of the 4 offenses I would classify as lacking consistent power in the Marlins, Guardians and the current state of the Angels, and I feel strongly about Eury Perez in his matchup against the Phillies offense. I left the Astros vs the Padres on the cutting room floor because I have been burned by both offenses in recent plays, so these are the 2 that I'm sticking with and feel the most confident in on this Friday evening.

2023 NRFI record: 47-42, -3.13 units

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MLB NRFI Best Bets: Friday (9/8) 

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins - No Run 1^st Inning (+100 at DraftKings)

The young lefty Cristopher Sanchez will get the start for the Phillies tonight, who had been solid in the shadow of guys on his own staff like Wheeler and Nola. Sanchez is excellent at two categories that make him the perfect candidate for this NRFI play - GB% and BB%. Sanchez ranks in the 95^th percentile at GB%, getting hitters to hit the ball on the ground 58.3% of the time. He also ranks in the 97^th percentile in BB%, allowing a free pass to a minuscule 4% of the batters he faces. He's not a slouch in other areas, either, ranking in the 86^th percentile in chase rate with an xERA of 3.73, which is in the 65^th percentile.

The Marlins have been one of my more frequent NRFI choices this year, and I've previously laid out how they struggle to hit with power, ranking 19^th or worse in SLG and OPS, and ranking 6^th-worst in the MLB in home runs.

Another youngster will take the mound on the opposing side, as Eury Perez will get the ball for the Marlins. Perez has been lights out in his debut season, pitching to the tune of a 2.86 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. His 3.73 xERA mirrors that of Sanchez, and most of his other advanced metrics are phenomenal. Though his hard hit% and average exit velocity don't exactly jump off the page, his xBA of 0.211 is outstanding and puts him in the 84^th percentile. His chase rate (75^th percentile), K% (88^th percentile) and whiff% (94^th percentile) display that he's one of the premier swing and miss artists in the game right now, and his BB% of 7.9% is comfortably above that of league average. He'll also have the splits advantage in this matchup, as the Phillies have hit for less average and power against RHP this season.

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians - No Run 1^st Inning (-113 at FanDuel)

I wasn't initially drawn to this game when looking at the board, but after diving into Angels SP Griffin Canning a little bit more, I was impressed to see that his underlying metrics outperform what his 4.30 ERA might indicate. For starters, his xERA is significantly lower at 3.92 and his xBA of 0.233 puts him in the 63^rd percentile. He's not quite the swing and miss savant that Eury Perez is, but he does rank above the 74^th percentile in K%, chase rate and whiff%. He's also not walking people, with a BB% of 6.4% that ranks in the 81^st percentile. He'll get the advantage of pitching to a Guardians squad that ranks dead last in HR as well as bottom-10 in OBP, OPS and SLG.

The other half of this play isn't so much about Guardians pitcher Logan Allen, it's about the depleted Angels offense that has really been struggling to put up runs recently. Not only did the Angels recently lose power bat Hunter Renfroe after putting him on waivers, but they will be without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani due to injuries, completely taking the thump out of the middle of their order. Instead, those top of the order spots will be occupied by the likes of Brandon Drury, Luis Rengifo and an aging Mike Moustakas, which doesn't exactly strike the same fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers.

Logan Allen has been a solid pitcher as well, floating around or above league average in all of the key factors that I consider in these write-ups. The Angels also hit for less power against lefties, with slight declines in their SLG and OPS, which will work to the advantage of Allen.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

• College Football Week 2 Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 1)
• NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2023)
• MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
• MLB Best Bets To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions

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