MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (4/26)
Saturday brings along another full MLB slate of games as we dive into the top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you’re unfamiliar with NRFI bets, it’s pretty simple. We’re betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers have to pitch a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
For Saturday, we have two picks featuring the Brewers vs. the Cardinals and the Rays vs. the Padres matchups. Without further ado, let’s get to my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, April 26.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers: Quinn Priester vs. Sonny Gray
Let's target a National League Central showdown for our first NRFI pick today. We have a starting pitching matchup of Quinn Priester vs. Sonny Gray as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers. Both arms have strong first-inning track records to trust here.
Gray was excellent in the first inning last year. The Cardinals starter posted a 23-5 NRFI record (82.1%) with a .198 batting average allowed in his opening frames. Gray also tossed a scoreless first inning in 14 out of 15 home starts in 2024.
The right-hander has just a 3-2 NRFI record so far this season, but he's holding hitters to a .118 batting average in the first inning. Those two runs have come on a pair of solo homers. Gray will face a Brewers offense that's batting just .200 in the first inning (28th in MLB) with a .254 wOBA (27th) and eight runs scored (25th). It's a favorable spot at home.
Meanwhile, Priester can hold serve for Milwaukee on the other side. The righty had a 6-1 NRFI record last year with a .200 batting average allowed in his first innings. He's thrown a scoreless opening frame in two out of three starts so far this season.
It's a small sample size, but Priester offers upside based on his matchup today. St. Louis has one of the worst first-inning offenses in the league this year. The Cardinals have scored just five runs in the opening frame so far (tied for worst). They have a .202 batting average (26th), .269 wOBA (25th) and 56 wRC+ (26th) in the first inning as well.
Gray and Priester have combined to go 34-9 to the NRFI over the past two seasons (79%). That's a favorable trend when considering the two underperforming first-inning offenses in play here.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Dylan Cease
Our second NRFI pick today brings us to an Interleague matchup between the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays. Instead of rooting for no runs in the first inning here, let's look in the opposite direction. The YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning) is the play considering the pair of starting pitchers.
Rays starter Ryan Pepiot is off to a rough start this season with a 4.82 ERA and 5.71 FIP through five starts. The right-hander has given up eight home runs over his past four starts and is allowing an 11.8% barrel rate (21st MLB percentile). The struggles usually begin in the first inning for Pepiot as well.
The Tampa pitcher is allowing a .348 batting average and .945 OPS in the first inning so far. In terms of NRFI stats, he's given up a first-inning run in two out of five outings. These early-start issues were evident last year when he had a pedestrian 17-9 NRFI record. He also posted a 4.50 ERA with a .749 OPS allowed in his opening frames in 2024.
Pepiot can immediately run into trouble against a potent San Diego offense on the road tonight. In the first inning this season, the Padres are hitting .280 (eighth in MLB) with a .378 wOBA (seventh) and 13.2% strikeout rate (first). They've scored 20 first-inning runs as well (sixth).
On the other side, San Diego starter Dylan Cease doesn't offer much confidence either. He had a sub-par 20-13 NRFI record last year with a 6.00 ERA and .804 OPS allowed in the first inning. Cease also has a career 4.81 ERA with a .751 OPS allowed in the first inning. It's his worst innings split as a starter.
Cease will face a top-10 first-inning offense in Tampa Bay tonight. In the opening frame, the Rays have a .277 batting average (ninth), .356 wOBA (10th), .812 OPS (10th) and 17.6% strikeout rate (fifth) so far. It's a tough spot for the San Diego righty, who's allowed a .375 batting average and .900 OPS allowed in the first inning this year. Cease has a 4-1 NRFI record, but the career numbers point to negative regression.
Pick: YRFI (-104)