Navigate

MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (5/17)

by |

Saturday brings along another jam-packed slate of MLB games. As you enjoy the weekend baseball, let’s dive into the top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.

If you're unfamiliar with NRFI bets, it's pretty simple. We're betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must pitch a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash. 

We have two picks for Saturday featuring the Astros vs. the Rangers and the Angels vs. the Dodgers. Let's get to my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, May 17th. 

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks

(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers: Ronel Blanco vs. Tyler Mahle

Our first NRFI pick today brings us to an American League West showdown between the Astros and Rangers. The starting pitching matchup in this divisional battle should lead to a scoreless first inning. Let's break it down. 

Rangers starter Tyler Mahle has been lights out to begin this season. He boasts a 1.47 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through nine starts. That dominance has carried over to the first inning. Mahle owns an 8-1 NRFI record while allowing just a .167 batting average in the opening frame. He's also tossed a scoreless first inning in 15 of his last 17 starts overall. 

Mahle doesn't strike out a ton of guys, but he's exceptional at forcing soft contact. His 31.6% hard-hit rate (89th percentile) and 5.1% barrel rate (80th) allow him to be effective despite the lack of swing-and-miss-stuff. He can keep it going, at least early on, in this matchup. 

The Astros are the worst first-inning offense in the Majors this season. They rank dead last in first-inning runs scored (eight) with a .235 wOBA (30th) and 49 wRC+ (29th) in the frame. Houston has picked it up offensively lately, but still struggles to score in the first. 

Meanwhile, Astros starter Ronel Blanco brings in strong first-inning numbers, too. He boasts a 7-1 NRFI record with a .154 batting average and .207 on-base percentage (OBP-base smarkallowed) in the first inning. Last year, Blanco tossed a scoreless opening frame in 21 of his 29 starts with a 10-4 NRFI record on the road. 

Blanco had a shaky start to the season, but he's settled down lately. The Houston righty owns a 3.03 ERA over his past six starts, and he just threw eight shutout innings last time out. For what it's worth, Blanco had a 2.00 ERA in three starts against the Rangers last year. He can do enough in the opening frame here to help cash the NRFI. 

Pick: NRFI (-125)

Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Clayton Kershaw

Let's now turn our attention to the Freeway Series as the Dodgers host the Angels on Saturday night. Clayton Kershaw makes his season debut for the Dodgers while veteran Tyler Anderson starts for the Angels. These starters can combine for a scoreless opening inning tonight. 

Kershaw is finally back after making just seven starts last year. The 37-year-old missed the first part of this season while recovering from offseason knee and toe surgeries. We'll see how much Kershaw has left, but it was encouraging to see him post a 2.57 ERA across five Minor-League rehab starts ahead of this outing. 

One thing we can count on from Kershaw, though, is his first-inning dominance. The longtime Dodger has a 2.75 ERA and .202 batting average allowed in the first inning over his career. The southpaw also had a 19-5 NRFI mark in 2023 with a 1.88 ERA and .184 batting average allowed in the first inning. Last year, he posted a 5-2 NRFI record. 

Including last year's seven starts, he has a combined 24-7 NRFI mark over his last 31 starts. For what it's worth, Kershaw also had a 0.82 ERA and .162 opponents’ batting average in the first inning of the 2022 campaign. 

The Angels have struggled all season against left-handed pitching. They have a .239 wOBA (29th in MLB), 48 wRC+ (30th), .189 batting average (29th) and 28.9% strikeout rate versus lefties this year. The offense has also scored only one first-inning run against a left-hander all season. 

On the other side, Anderson can hold serve to cash the NRFI. The Angels starter boasts a 2.58 ERA through eight starts, with a 2.70 ERA in three road outings. The southpaw also notably owns a 2.74 ERA in his career at Dodger Stadium. 

Anderson tossed a scoreless first inning in 22 out of 31 starts last season (71%), with an impressive 13-2 NRFI record on the road. Despite a shaky 3-5 NRFI mark so far this year, some positive regression could be coming in that area based on those 2024 numbers. 

Pick: NRFI (-104)

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App