MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (6/22)
Saturday brings along another full MLB slate of games as we dive into today’s top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these MLB picks and predictions. For Saturday, we have two (NRFI) picks. The two games we'll focus on are the Mariners vs. Marlins and the Blue Jays vs. Guardians. Without further ado, below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, June 22. Note that odds may change before the first pitch.
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Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Shaun Anderson
The Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins face off in an interleague showdown on Saturday afternoon. It's the American League West vs. the National League East with a starting pitching matchup of Logan Gilbert vs. Shaun Anderson. The trends and stats point to the NRFI in this one, so let's break it down.
Logan Gilbert is having a strong season for Seattle with a 2.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His overall success so far includes impressive first-inning numbers. Gilbert has held opponents scoreless in 13 out of 15 first innings so far while allowing a .167 batting average and .237 on-base percentage (OBP) in his opening frames. The Mariners right-hander has carried over his NRFI success from the second half of last season when he tossed a scoreless first inning in 13 of his last 16 starts. That's an 83.9% NRFI hit rate over the past calendar year or so.
Gilbert has an above-average 24.9% strikeout rate this year with an elite-level walk rate of 5.3% (85th percentile of MLB pitchers). He should hold the Marlins in check early on. Miami is one of the league's worst offenses against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.262 wOBA, 67 wRC+, .217 batting average).
On the other side, Jesus Luzardo was supposed to go for Miami but has been scratched. It'll be Shaun Anderson to start the game. The right-hander has only made one appearance for the Marlins after being acquired from the Rangers and it didn't go well with seven runs allowed. However, he did toss a scoreless first inning in that outing. The Mariners have some subpar first-inning numbers this season (.292 wOBA, .218 BA, 31.6% K rate). The Mariners are also 48-29 to the NRFI this season for a 62% hit rate.
Bet: NRFI (-130)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Ben Lively
The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians face off on Saturday afternoon in an interesting American League matchup. We have Jose Berrios on the mound for Toronto and Ben Lively starting for Cleveland. Both pitchers have excellent NRFI track records this season and point us in that direction.
Berrios is having a solid season for the Blue Jays with a 3.13 EA and 1.12 WHIP. Though some of his advanced metrics are worrisome (4.62 FIP, 4.43 xERA), he can still post a scoreless first inning this weekend. Berrios has an 11-4 NRFI record this season (73%), including four straight scoreless first innings. This early success has become a trend for Berrios, who had NRFI marks of 26-6 last year (81%) and 23-9 in 2022 (72%). That's a 76% hit rate on the NRFI for the right-hander over the past three seasons combined.
The Toronto starter will face a dangerous Cleveland offense, but he can still post a scoreless first inning. The Guardians have just a .272 wOBA, 77 wRC+ and a .204 batting average in the first inning this season. If Berrios can get past Steven Kwan, who has a .462 career average against him, then it's some easier head-to-head matchups afterward. In their careers, Andres Gimenez (.111 average) and Jose Ramirez (.227 average) have struggled vs. Berrios.
On the other side, Ben Lively boasts a 3.02 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for Cleveland. It's a resurgent season for the journeyman pitcher and it starts with his first inning success. Lively has held opponents scoreless in 10 out of 11 first innings this season for an impressive 90% NRFI hit rate. He'll face a Toronto lineup that's scored the second-fewest runs in the first inning this season (21). The Blue Jays also have just a .252 wOBA, 62 wRC+ and a .195 batting average in opening frames.
Grab the NRFI in this matchup. The Blue Jays are 48-26 to the NRFI this season, including 8-2 in the past 10 games. Cleveland is 41-31 to the NRFI.
Bet: NRFI (-108)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: