MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (6/28)
Saturday brings along another loaded slate of MLB games. As you enjoy the weekend baseball, let’s dive into the top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you're unfamiliar with MLB NRFI bets, they’re pretty simple. We're betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must pitch a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Let's get to my favorite MLB NRFI picks and plays for Saturday, June 28th.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Shohei Ohtani vs. Seth Lugo
Today's first NRFI pick features Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Dodgers. Ohtani will make his third start of the season. We've seen some mixed pitching results from the two-way star thus far, but he can still anchor our NRFI play.
Ohtani was shaky in his first outing, allowing a run on two hits against the Padres. In his second start, though, the right-hander struck out two and didn't allow a baserunner in a scoreless first inning. Let's hope we get that version of Ohtani tonight.
The previous NRFI track record is there for Ohtani. In 2023, his most recent pitching season, he posted a 17-6 NRFI mark with a 2.35 ERA and .114 batting average allowed in the opening frame. In 2022, he had a 20-8 NRFI record with a 2.89 ERA and .227 batting average allowed in the first inning. Ohtani has tossed a scoreless first frame in 73% of his career starts.
The above stats speak for themselves, but the matchup is also a favorable one. The Royals are struggling to hit right-handed pitching lately. Over the past week, they have a .256 wOBA (29th) and .193 batting average (28th) in the split.
The Royals are a bottom-tier home offense this season. They have just a .296 wOBA and 80 wRC+ at home in the first inning (23rd and 25th, respectively). Ohtani should hold down this lineup early, especially since he can go all out for an inning-plus without a full start to worry about right now.
Meanwhile, Seth Lugo can hold serve against the Dodgers. The Kansas City starter has an impressive 12-2 NRFI record this season with a 1.93 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in the first inning. He's also held opposing hitters to a .130 batting average and .184 on-base percentage (OBP) in the opening frame this year.
This continues a trend from last year when Lugo posted an elite 29-4 NRFI record with a 1.91 ERA and .210 batting average allowed in the first inning. Lugo had a 21-5 NRFI mark in 2023 as well. That gives him an 85% NRFI rate over the past three seasons combined.
Overall, the Dodgers have one of the best first-inning offenses this season. However, it's been a much different story lately. In June, Los Angeles has a .141 batting average (29th) and .211 wOBA (29th) in the opening frame.
Pick: NRFI (+100)
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Let's now focus on a late-afternoon matchup between the Marlins and Diamondbacks. We have Sandy Alcantara on the mound for Miami, and then Brandon Pfaadt starting for Arizona. This pair of pitchers has the upside to combine for a scoreless first inning.
Alcantara had a horrendous first two months of the season, but he's calmed down lately. The Marlins' right-hander boasts a 2.74 ERA over his last four starts while looking more like a former Cy Young winner. His season-long 6.69 ERA is still pretty ugly, though the arrow is pointing up now.
Alcantara has a subpar 9-6 NRFI mark this season with a 5.40 ERA in the first inning. However, much of his first-inning struggles came earlier in the year. He's tossed a scoreless opening frame in six of his last eight starts entering today.
More notably, Alcantara provides a previously strong NRFI track record to trust. In his last two healthy seasons, he posted a 21-7 NRFI record in 2023 and a 26-6 NRFI record in 2022. The righty has also thrown a scoreless first frame in 75% of his career starts.
Over the past two weeks, the Diamondbacks are batting just .200 in the first inning (23rd) with a .269 wOBA (22nd). Arizona is also hitting .190 against right-handed pitchers in the first inning during June.
Pfaadt, meanwhile, brings in some excellent first-inning numbers. He's tossed a scoreless first in 12 of his 16 starts this season, including a 6-1 home NRFI record. Last year, the Arizona starter posted a 25-7 NRFI mark with a 0.94 WHIP and .207 batting average allowed in the opening frame. He also had a 12-4 NRFI record at home last season.
Overall in his career, Pfaadt owns a 77% NRFI rate. That includes a scoreless first inning in 18 of his last 23 home starts (78%). He's more comfortable pitching at home, especially in the opening frame.
Pfaadt gets a favorable matchup against the Marlins today. This is one of the worst first-inning offenses this season, ranking 24th in runs scored in the first. This month, Miami is batting just .192 in the first inning (28th) with a .230 wOBA (28th).
Pick: NRFI (-110)