MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (8/16)
Saturday brings along another loaded slate of MLB games. As you enjoy the weekend baseball, let's dive into the top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you’re unfamiliar with MLB NRFI bets, they're pretty simple. We’re betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must pitch a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Let’s get to my favorite MLB NRFI picks and plays for Saturday, August 16.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Sonny Gray
Today's first NRFI pick features the Yankees and Cardinals in a primetime matchup. We have a pair of veteran starting pitchers with Max Fried and Sonny Gray starting. Let's count on both to combine for a scoreless first inning.
Gray looked shaky last month, but he's been better lately. The Cardinals' right-hander owns a 2.37 ERA over his past three starts coming into tonight. He also boasts a 2.91 FIP over his past 10 outings, with the arrow pointing up. His season-long 3.11 FIP and 2.94 xFIP are positive underlying metrics as well.
Gray brings in a trustworthy NRFI history. He's tossed a scoreless first inning in 18-of-24 starts this season (75%), with an 11-2 NRFI record over his past 13 starts. Over the previous three seasons, the righty has posted NRFI rates of 82% NRFI in 2024, 88% in 2023, and 88% in 2022.
In tonight's matchup, Gray will face a Yankees offense that's batting just .194 against right-handers over the past two weeks (29th in MLB). Plus, he has great home splits. Gray has a 2.88 FIP at home this season, and he posted a 2.79 ERA at home a year ago.
On the other side, Fried is actually the wild card here because of his current form. The Yankees' southpaw is slumping with a 6.00 ERA over his past seven starts. He may continue to struggle today, but let's just hope he gets through the first inning unscathed.
Fried has a decent 17-7 NRFI record this year (70%). His 2.25 ERA and .189 batting average allowed in the first inning are encouraging, though. Plus, the lefty posted a 23-9 NRFI record last year (79%) with NRFI rates of 93% in both the 2023 and 2022 campaigns.
Let's count on Fried at least starting this game on a high note. The Cardinals rank dead last in first-inning runs scored this season. Over the past two weeks in the frame, they're batting just .167 with a .169 wOBA. The lineup usually gets going in the later innings.
Pick: NRFI (-145)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Mike Burrows vs. Shota Imanaga
Let's now turn our attention to a matinee between NL Central foes. Saturday's first game of the afternoon features the Cubs hosting the Pirates. We have an intriguing starting pitching matchup that should lead to the NRFI cashing.
Cubs starter Shota Imanaga owns a 3.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through 17 starts this season. Outside of one bad outing last month, he's been effective since returning to the rotation in late June. If we ignore his blowup on July 25, Imanaga boasts a 2.42 ERA in his eight other recent starts.
The Chicago southpaw has a decent 12-5 NRFI record this season (70%). That includes a scoreless first inning in five of seven home starts. Additionally, Imanaga posted an elite 14-2 NRFI mark at home last year. He also had an 86% NRFI record overall in 2024.
Imanaga will face a Pirates offense that ranks 25th in the majors in first-inning runs scored this year. Pittsburgh also has a 32.1% strikeout rate against left-handers in the frame (28th in MLB). Plus, the Cubs' lefty has yet to allow a run in his three career meetings against the Pirates.
On the other side, Mike Burrows starts for Pittsburgh. The rookie has a shaky 4.66 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) this season. All we care about is the first inning, though. In that area, he's more trustworthy, especially in today's matchup.
Burrows has an impressive 11-3 NRFI record this year (79%) with a .212 batting average allowed and a 31.6% strikeout rate in the first inning. He's also tossed eight straight scoreless opening frames. Meanwhile, the Cubs are hitting just .205 with a .239 wOBA in the first inning over the past two weeks.
Pick: NRFI (-105)