MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (8/2)
Saturday brings along another loaded slate of MLB games. As you enjoy the weekend baseball, let's dive into the top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you’re unfamiliar with MLB NRFI bets, they're pretty simple. We’re betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must pitch a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Let’s get to my favorite MLB NRFI picks and plays for Saturday, August 2nd.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Zack Wheeler
Today's first NRFI pick features an electric starting pitching matchup. Baseball fans get a treat with Tarik Skubal versus Zack Wheeler as the Tigers visit the Phillies. These two Cy Young candidates should combine for a scoreless first inning with elite stats and trends pointing in that direction.
Skubal owns a 2.09 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season. He's been dominant lately with a 1.46 ERA and 1.70 FIP over his last 11 starts, including fewer than two runs allowed in eight of those 11 games. Skubal has also been lights out on the road, with a 1.89 ERA away from Detroit this year. That includes a 0.97 ERA and 59:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his past seven road starts.
When it comes to the first inning, Skubal is elite in that area as well. He's posted an 18-3 NRFI record this year with a 1.71 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in the opening frame. The Tigers southpaw has a 30.8% strikeout rate and just a .164 batting average allowed in the first inning as well. He also claims a 78% NRFI rate over the past four seasons combined.
As noted above, Skubal has shown up on the road this season. That begins in the first inning. He has an 8-1 NRFI record on the road. It's worth noting that Skubal posted a 12-3 road NRFI record last year. He lives for and strives in these tough road environments.
On the other side, count on Wheeler to finish off the scoreless first inning. The Phillies ace has a 2.56 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this year. He's been especially elite at home, with a 2.00 ERA and 2.21 FIP. Recently, Wheeler owns a 1.13 ERA over his past six home starts.
Like Skubal, Wheeler's dominance gets going early. He's thrown a scoreless first inning in 18 out of 21 starts with a 1.29 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in the frame. The right-hander has also held opposing hitters to a minimal .114 batting average in the first. Wheeler has a 9-2 NRFI record at home, too.
This all continues an impressive trend for Wheeler. He posted a 28-4 NRFI record last year (88%) and a 26-6 NRFI record in 2023 (81%). He also boasts an 81% NRFI rate or better for six straight seasons now, and a career 79% NRFI mark.
Pick: NRFI (-125)
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Luis Castillo
Let's now focus on an American League West showdown between the Rangers and Mariners. We have another intriguing starting pitching matchup here with strong NRFI indications. Let's break it down.
Seattle starter Luis Castillo brings in excellent first-inning numbers. The righty boasts an elite 21-1 NRFI record this season with 14 straight scoreless first innings coming into today. He also owns a 0.82 ERA and a .205 batting average allowed in the frame this year.
Castillo is pitching well right now. He has a 1.96 ERA and 1.86 FIP over his past six starts, including a 36:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in this stretch. The veteran righty owns a 2.29 ERA at home this year and a career 2.75 ERA when pitching in Seattle.
Since the All-Star break, the Rangers are batting just .146 in the first inning. The offense is also struggling overall against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Plus, it helps that Castillo boasts a 2.25 ERA over his past four starts against Texas.
Meanwhile, Merrill Kelly will make his debut with the Rangers today. He had a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with the Arizona Diamondbacks before getting traded. Kelly comes in pitching well lately, with a 1.82 ERA over his last four starts and a 2.56 ERA over his past 10 outings. Let’s bank on him continuing the hot streak today.
Kelly’s 13-9 NRFI record and 5.73 first-inning ERA this year aren’t exactly comforting. However, he’s thrown a scoreless first inning in eight of his last 10 starts coming in. Plus, his current overall form of limiting runs is tough to ignore. He also gets a favorable matchup here.
Kelly faces a Mariners offense that has a .160 batting average, .217 wOBA and 34% strikeout rate in the opening frame since the All-Star break. The M’s are also batting just .206 against righties over the past two weeks.
Pick: NRFI (-105)