MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (8/30)
Saturday brings along another loaded slate of MLB games. As you enjoy the weekend baseball, let's dive into the top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you’re unfamiliar with MLB NRFI bets, they're pretty simple. We’re betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must pitch a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Let’s get to my favorite MLB NRFI picks and plays for Saturday, August 30th.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Gavin Williams
Our first NRFI pick today features a matchup of American League Wild Card contenders. Gavin Williams and the Guardians host Logan Gilbert and the Mariners on Saturday night. Some key trends and stats point to a scoreless first inning here.
Williams is having a solid season for Cleveland. He owns a 3.36 ERA overall and has been pitching well lately. The right-hander boasts a 2.50 ERA over his past nine starts. Despite a couple of shaky outings in August, Williams still has a 2.73 ERA over his last five starts.
On the NRFI front, Williams has thrown a scoreless first inning in 19 out of 26 starts (73%). He's allowing just a .196 batting average in the frame as well. The Guardians righty has a 9-4 NRFI mark at home, including 6-1 in his past seven home starts. He also owns a 2.48 home ERA in this stretch.
Williams now faces a Seattle offense batting .178 in the first inning over the past two weeks (28th). The Mariners also have a lofty 30.6% strikeout rate in the frame during this span (26th). It's a good matchup to post a zero in the first.
Meanwhile, Seattle starter Logan Gilbert can do the same. The right-hander's 12-7 NRFI record this year isn't great, but he's now thrown seven straight scoreless first innings coming into this start. Plus, he's allowing just a .205 batting average with a 36.4% strikeout rate in the first.
Gilbert is also pitching very well lately, outside of one bad start in which he gave up six runs on the road to the Phillies. If we ignore that for a second, though, he boasts a 2.48 ERA over his past seven other outings. His early-season struggles, especially in the first inning, appear to be in the past.
Gilbert had a 29-4 NRFI record last year (88%), and he's thrown a scoreless opening frame in 76% of his career starts. He'll now face a Cleveland lineup that has a .222 wOBA in the first inning over the past two weeks (28th). The Guardians are also batting .190 with a 29.2% strikeout rate in the first frame over the last week.
Pick: NRFI (-135)
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers: Michael McGreevy vs. Andrew Abbott
Let's turn our attention now to a National League Central matchup between the Cardinals and Reds. We have one trustworthy NRFI pitcher on one side in Andrew Abbott. Let's also count on Michael McGreevy to hold his own to cash this pick.
Abbott is having a breakout season for Cincinnati with a 2.62 ERA. He's allowed fewer than three earned runs in 17 of his 23 starts as well. We have seen Abbott struggle a bit lately, but his subpar outings have mostly come on the road. He boasts an elite 2.01 ERA at home this season.
More importantly, Abbott has now thrown a scoreless first inning in 21 of his 23 starts this season (91%). That includes a perfect 13-0 NRFI record at home. Plus, the Reds southpaw is allowing just a .183 batting average in the opening frame.
Let's bank on Abbott to come through with how well he's pitching at home. He'll face a Cardinals offense that ranks dead last in the Majors in first-inning runs scored this year. Over the past month in the frame, St. Louis has just a .232 wOBA (29th), 46 wRC+ (29th) and .213 batting average (28th). Over the past week, the Cards have been hitting a putrid .158 in the first.
McGreevy is the bigger wild card on the other side. The Cardinals right-hander has a 4.43 ERA over 11 outings (10 starts) this season. Yet, the arrow may be pointing up. The right-hander has thrown a quality start in three of his last four games with a 3.38 ERA in this stretch. He also owns a 3.00 ERA on the road (four starts).
The St. Louis starter has a 7-3 NRFI record this year, including 3-1 on the road. McGreevy also owns a career 10-3 NRFI mark (77%). It's a small sample size, but a promising trend. At least for today, he'll take on a Reds lineup that ranks 28th in the MLB in first-inning runs and wOBA over the past month.
Pick: NRFI (-125)