MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Sunday (5/3)
Earlier this week we posted on X an early season update on how MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks were faring to that point, and the results were fascinating.
Adding to that surprise is a crazy statistic about reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes. Did you know that Skenes has pitched to a 12.15 ERA in the first inning this season, but a 0.99 ERA in the second inning and onward?
Let's dive into some games on this May 3rd slate and make some MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 6-8 (-2.86 units, -20.4% ROI)
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Strider vs. Kyle Freeland
Spencer Strider makes his season debut after recovering from an oblique injury. He recorded 15 strikeouts over 9.1 innings pitched in his final two rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett. But two of his worst three HR/9 rates have come in the last two seasons (2.0 and 1.4), and meaning his debut at Coors Field isn't an easy way to get back into rhythm.
One of the sluggers he will see early is Mickey Moniak, who entered this series amid a 14-game hit streak while batting .365 with six doubles and three home runs. He extended that hitting streak with two hits in his first two at-bats in the series opener, including a towering 439-foot homer.
Atlanta has several hot sluggers of its own, like Ozzie Albies, who entered this series amid a 12-game hitting streak, during which he batted .413 with eight extra-base hits. He has since extended that hitting streak to 13 (two shy of tying the longest hitting streak of his career), and aims to continue his success against Kyle Freeland, against whom he is 11-for-24 with a 1.125 OPS.
Freeland has served up seven home runs with a .968 opponents' OPS in 137 combined at-bats to current Braves hitters, making this YRFI a great value play.
Pick: YRFI (-135)
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes vs. Jack Kochanowicz
After Friday’s 4-3 loss in the series opener, the Angels ran their losing streak to seven games (and 11-of-12), while scoring two runs or fewer seven times in that span.
Clay Holmes is used to honing in on one inning as a former closer, and his 3.07 first-inning ERA is actually better than his career ERA in the ninth inning (3.30). In addition, he has allowed a .227 batting average in the first frame, and his .300 slugging allowed is his lowest of any of the first four innings.
Meanwhile, I am not worried about Jack Kochanowicz’s chances of limiting the Mets early, as New York entered this series ranked in the bottom-five of all teams in home runs, and dead-last in slugging and ISO.
Pick: NRFI (-110)
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Kris Bubic vs. Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo may not be the same frontline starter that he was when the Mariners acquired him from the Reds. Still, his career success against current Royals hitters is hard to ignore, as the righty has allowed a .205/.226/.311 slash line in 122 combined at-bats to Kansas City sluggers.
Castillo also has outstanding career numbers against some of Kansas City’s most feared sluggers. Bobby Witt Jr. is 1-for-16 with three strikeouts against Castillo, while Salvador Perez is just 5-for-20, with all five hits being singles.
Kris Bubic also has a comparable WHIP and improved H/9 and K/9 rates from his first All-Star campaign last season.
Pick: NRFI (-140)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.