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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/13)

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Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Two of the many games tonight have enticing No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections. 

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    Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks

    (Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

    St. Louis Cardinals (+130) at Philadelphia Phillies (-155) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105) 

    Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Jesus Luzardo

    Sonny Gray and Jesus Luzardo have been stingy in the first inning of contests this year. They’ve each started eight games, and both hurlers have spun six scoreless first innings, allowing runs in the first inning in only two of their turns. They’ve combined to spin 12 scoreless first innings in 16 starts (75%) in 2025.

    They’re also outstanding early in games. According to FanGraphs, Luzardo has a 2.53 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 7.4% walk rate and 31.7% strikeout rate in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher in 97 career starts.

    Meanwhile, since 2022, Gray has recorded the following ERA and xFIP in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher:

    • 2022: ERA – 1.81 | XFIP – 3.55
    • 2023: ERA – 1.88 | XFIP – 2.95
    • 2024: ERA – 2.07 | XFIP – 2.67
    • 2025: ERA – 1.89 | XFIP – 3.24

    Finally, the matchups are unimposing for both starting pitchers. Only one of St. Louis’ projected top-five hitters has had a wRC+ above 106 against lefties since 2023 or debuting in the Majors, and three have had a 95 wRC+ or lower. The Phillies have two hitters with a 99 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2023 in the top five of their lineup.

    Pick: NRFI (-115)

    New York Yankees (-140) at Seattle Mariners (+118) | O/U 7.0 (-115/-105) 

    Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Bryan Woo

    Bryan Woo has allowed a run in more starts (four) than he’s spun a scoreless first inning (three) in 2025. Nevertheless, Woo is outstanding in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher and a whiz at home.

    In 47 career starts, Woo has a 2.02 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 5.4% walk rate and a 28.1% strikeout rate in his first time through the order. Additionally, in 19 career starts at home, Woo has a 2.62 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 4.4% walk rate and a 27.1% strikeout rate. Woo’s assignment against the top of New York’s order is tricky, but he’s talented enough to tie them up for at least the first inning.

    Max Fried is the A-side of this potential pitching duel. He’s twirled a scoreless first inning in seven of his eight starts this year. Moreover, in eight starts spanning 51.2 innings this season, Fried has recorded the following stats:

    • 1.05 ERA
    • 3.41 xERA
    • 3.57 xFIP
    • 3.47 SIERA
    • 0.91 WHIP
    • 5.3% walk rate
    • 22.6% strikeout rate
    • 50.7% groundball rate
    • 107 stuff+
    • 102 location+
    • 108 pitching+

    Fried is carving up everyone.

    He’s also a stud out of the gate. Since 2022, Fried has recorded the following ERA and xFIP in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher:

    • 2022: ERA – 1.65 | XFIP – 3.15
    • 2023: ERA – 1.69 | XFIP – 2.75
    • 2024: ERA – 3.13 | XFIP – 3.31
    • 2025: ERA – 1.47 | XFIP – 3.72

    Offenses are rarely able to jump on Fried early in games. Even though he also has a challenging matchup against the top of Seattle’s lineup, I expect him to throw a scoreless first inning.

    Pick: NRFI (-135)

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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