MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/20)
Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Two of the many games tonight have enticing No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-178) at St. Louis Cardinals (+150) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Erick Fedde
Tarik Skubal is the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, and he’s arguably pitching better this season. According to FanGraphs, in nine starts in 2025, the southpaw has a 2.67 ERA, 2.67 xERA, 2.19 xFIP, 2.24 SIERA, 0.93 WHIP, 2.8% walk rate and a 33.6% strikeout rate. Skubal also has elite plate discipline numbers and pitch-modeling data to support his dominance.
It’s not difficult to make a case for him spinning a scoreless first inning, something he’s done in seven of his nine starts this season. Skubal has an easy assignment at the top of St. Louis’s order. Willson Contreras (142 wRC+) is the only projected top-five hitter with a wRC+ above 102 against lefties since 2023, and three have had a 95 wRC+ or lower since 2023.
Fedde isn’t an elite starter. Nevertheless, he’s twirled a scoreless first inning in six of his nine starts this season. The veteran righty has also spun 14.2 scoreless innings combined in his previous two starts.
Fedde also has a rock-solid track record early in games. In 128 career starts, Fedde has had a 3.52 ERA and 4.07 xFIP in his first time through the order. Finally, while Kerry Carpenter (150 wRC+ versus righties since 2023) and Riley Greene (145 wRC+ versus righties since 2023) are difficult assignments in the first inning, the other three players from the Tigers’ projected top five hitters in the lineup aren’t world-beaters, owning a 104, 101 and 101 wRC+ against righties since 2023 or debuting in the Majors. Fedde can open the game with a scoreless first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Kansas City Royals (+115) at San Francisco Giants (-135) | O/U 8.0 (-105/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen vs. Hayden Birdsong
The Giants and Royals were in a pitching duel at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park last night. According to FantasyPros, Oracle Park has the fifth-lowest park factor for runs (0.916).
Michael Lorenzen and Hayden Birdsong aren’t as good as Kris Bubic and Robbie Ray, but they can also enjoy some early-game success tonight. Birdsong is making his first start of the season after opening the year in the bullpen.
Birdsong started 16 games for the Giants last year, tallying a scoreless first inning in 13 starts. Furthermore, he had a 3.67 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 11.8% walk rate and a 27.8% strikeout rate in his first time through the order as a starter last season.
Birdsong’s first inning assignment isn’t imposing tonight, either. Bobby Witt Jr. is the only stud, and three of Kansas City’s projected top-five hitters have had a 99 wRC+ or worse against righties since 2023.
Lorenzen is a slightly above-average starter. Yet, he’s outstanding early in games. In his first time through the order in nine starts this season, Lorenzen has a 1.25 ERA, 3.35 xFIP and a 0.83 WHIP. Finally, he’s also thrown a scoreless first inning in all nine starts this year. According to Baseball-Reference, Lorenzen has allowed only seven hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in nine scoreless first innings this year.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.