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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (6/18)

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After going with three plays in both of last week's articles, each of which required fading some of the more prolific offenses across the league, today's slate leaves a whole lot to be desired in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market. Aside from the game I have selected, I don't think we have any other No. 1 pitchers scheduled to start tonight, and you have to squint your eyes pretty hard to even find some No. 2 guys. Therefore, I'm going to settle on the one game I feel really good about tonight and play a full unit as opposed to my normal half unit. As always, the detailed breakdown is below.

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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

This Season: 27-19 (+1.85 Units)

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants 

Starting Pitchers: Justin Steele vs. Logan Webb

The southpaw Justin Steele will get the start for the Cubs tonight, who is in the midst of yet another really solid season after contending for the National League's Cy Young award last year. Though it's been slightly shortened due to injury, his 2024 metrics have been extremely similar to his 2023 ones in a lot of ways. His 3.22 ERA is bested by his 3.14 xERA, and his 1.09 WHIP is backed by his 0.232 xBA. His swing-and-miss numbers have slightly dipped, but his ability to avoid hard contact has been excellent, as his sub-5% barrel rate ranks in the 86th percentile and his average exit velocity ranks in the top quartile of all qualified pitchers. While the Giants possess a relatively balanced lineup, they have struggled to consistently hit for power, ranking outside the top half of the league in OPS, slugging (SLG) and home runs despite hitting for average and reaching base at a top-10 clip. For what it's worth, Steele has also been a much better pitcher during night games, holding an ERA at night that is a full 2.16 runs lower than his ERA during day starts.

Logan Webb gets the ball for the Giants this evening, a model of consistency at the top of their rotation dating back to 2021. Webb has never been a flamethrower, but he's been able to supplant himself as one of the top starters in the National League by excelling in a few key areas. For starters, he does not give up free baserunners, with a 5.3% walk rate that ranks in the 85th percentile. Though he does not generate a ton of strikeouts because of his soft-throwing nature, he still generates a 30.4% chase rate that sits in the 70th percentile. His hard-hit metrics have also never been outstanding, but they are neutralized by the fact that his ground ball% consistently sits at the top of MLB, ranking in the 94th percentile with a 57% ground ball rate this year. That means that even though his pitches are getting hit harder than most, he's keeping the ball out of the air more often than not. He gets a Cubs lineup that has been steadily declining throughout the regular season, currently ranking 20th or worse in batting average (AVG), SLG, OPS and home runs. They also fare noticeably worse against right-handed pitching, which will work to Webb's advantage this evening.

I will note that the wind will be gusting out to left-center field at Wrigley Field tonight, which is why the game total and NRFI price do not reflect the caliber of pitchers we're getting, but that's not stopping me from making this my play today.

Bet: NRFI (+100 @ DraftKings)

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