MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (7/8)
Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Two of the many games have enticing MLB No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections. Here are my top MLB NRFI picks and bets for Tuesday, July 8.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+118) at Kansas City Royals (-144) | O/U 8.0 (-113/-107)
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Seth Lugo
Mitch Keller versus Seth Lugo doesn’t scream “battle of the aces.” Still, both veteran righties are rock-solid pitchers. According to FanGraphs, Keller has a 3.64 ERA, 3.93 xERA, 3.93 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA in 18 starts in 2025. Meanwhile, Lugo has a 2.65 ERA, 4.41 xERA, 4.03 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA in 16 starts. While the gap between Lugo’s ERA and ERA estimators isn’t ideal, Lugo has routinely bested his ERA estimators, assuaging my concerns that it’s a total fluke.
Both pitchers are also sharp early in games. Keller has a 2.52 ERA and 4.17 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter this season after tallying a 2.42 ERA and 4.06 xFIP last year. Conversely, Lugo has a 2.00 ERA and 3.37 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter this season and had a 2.30 ERA and 4.09 xFIP in 2024.
Keller and Lugo have also regularly twirled scoreless first innings this year. The former has thrown a scoreless first inning in 13-of-18 starts in 2025, including three straight. The latter has thrown a scoreless first inning in 14-of-16 starts this year, throwing eight in nine home starts and six straight entering tonight’s start.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Cleveland Guardians (+167) at Houston Astros (-206) | O/U 7.0 (-121/-101)
Starting Pitchers: Joey Cantillo vs. Hunter Brown
The pitching matchup in this contest is lopsided. Still, Joey Cantillo has a 3.41 ERA, 3.90 xERA, 3.32 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA this season, albeit in 21 relief appearances and one start.
Nevertheless, Cantillo threw a scoreless first inning in his only start this year and threw one in three of his last four starts in 2024. The lefty also has a 2.57 ERA and 2.59 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter in nine career starts.
Hunter Brown is the A-side of this matchup and one of MLB’s best pitchers. He has a blistering 1.82 ERA, 2.80 xERA, 2.66 xFIP and 2.82 SIERA in 17 starts in 2025. Brown has twirled a scoreless first inning in 14 of his 17 starts, including all seven of his home starts. Brown has also thrown seven straight scoreless first innings entering tonight, including tossing a scoreless first against the Guardians on June 7.
Pick: NRFI (-145)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.