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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (8/12)

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There are many options to pick from for a No Run First Inning (NRFI) or Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) wager today. Still, I’ve narrowed it down to my two favorite selections for Tuesday, August 12.

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    Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

    (Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

    Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) at Milwaukee Brewers (-125) | O/U 7.0 (-105/-115)

    Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Freddy Peralta

    Paul Skenes remains the king of NRFIs. According to Baseball Reference, Skenes has yielded zero runs on 15 hits and four walks with 27 strikeouts in the first inning of 24 starts this season. Only one of the hits he’s allowed in the first went for extra bases.

    Skenes is absurdly good, especially early in games. In fact, he’s allowed only four runs in the first two innings combined this season and just 19 through five innings in 24 starts. Per FanGraphs, Skenes has a 0.32 ERA and 2.85 xFIP in his first time through the order this season. Additionally, he has spun a 0.83 ERA and 2.39 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter in his career.

    While Skenes is a beast, Freddy Peralta isn’t a slouch early in games, either. He’s tossed a scoreless first inning in 20-of-24 starts, including against the Pirates on May 23 and June 24.

    Peralta has recorded a 1.66 ERA and 3.63 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter this season. Finally, while a -160 line for a NRFI at Caesars Sportsbook is chalky, it’s a relative bargain versus -175 at DraftKings Sportsbook and -186 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

    Pick: NRFI (-160)

    Tampa Bay Rays (-105) at Athletics (-115) | O/U 10.0 (-110/-110)

    Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs. Jacob Lopez

    Shane Baz’s performance has been uneven this year, resulting in an ugly 4.92 ERA. The righty’s 3.83 xERA, 3.84 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA in 23 starts this season were less putrid.

    Nevertheless, he’ll likely eventually get roughed up tonight, but bettors shouldn’t expect it to happen immediately. Baz has a 2.61 ERA and 3.62 xFIP in his first time through the order this season. He’s also tossed a scoreless first inning in 20-of-23 starts (87%).

    Jacob Lopez is on fire entering tonight. The lefty has allowed zero runs on 10 hits, six walks and 19 strikeouts in his previous three starts, totaling 17 innings. Lopez has also effectively navigated his hitter-friendly home ballpark, as evidenced by his 3.13 ERA and 3.86 xFIP in 37.1 innings at home this year.

    Lopez has also done well early in his starts. He has a 2.12 ERA, albeit with a 4.60 xFIP, in his first time through the order as a starter this season. Lopez has also thrown a scoreless first inning in 12-of-14 starts (85.7%). The first inning wager is juiced to a YRFI, but the NRFI is the side I love, and a +100 line is a bonus.

    Pick: NRFI (+100)

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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