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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (9/16)

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There are 16 games today. So, everyone is playing, and there’s even a doubleheader. As a result, there are many options to pick from for a No Runs First Inning (NRFI) or Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) wager today. I’ve narrowed them down to my two favorite selections for Tuesday, September 16.

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    Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

    (Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook)

    Cleveland Guardians (+130) at Detroit Tigers (-155) | O/U 8.0 (-115/-105)

    Starting Pitchers: Joey Cantillo vs. Casey Mize

    Joey Cantillo began this season in Cleveland’s bullpen, but the Guardians have discovered a useful starter since moving him to their rotation. According to FanGraphs, Cantillo has the following statistics in 10 starts spanning 52 innings.

    • 3.12 ERA
    • 3.29 xERA
    • 3.88 xFIP
    • 4.15 SIERA
    • 1.27 WHIP
    • 11.0 BB%
    • 25.7 K%
    • 13.1 SwStr%
    • 31.5 CSW%

    The 25-year-old lefty has also done well early in games. He has a 3.12 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 11.0 BB% and 25.7 K% in his first time through the order as a starter this year. In addition, Cantillo has thrown a scoreless first inning in seven of 10 starts, tossing one in four straight starts entering tonight.

    Casey Mize is having a career year on the bump. He’s also done his best work at home. In 12 starts spanning 62.1 innings at home this season, Mize has a 3.47 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 5.0 BB% and 18.2 K%.

    Mize hasn’t stumbled out of the blocks, either. Instead, he has a 2.32 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 6.2 BB% and 26.7 K% in his first time through the order this season. Mize has thrown a scoreless first inning in 19-of-25 starts. Finally, he’s done so in 10-of-12 starts at home.

    Pick: NRFI (-115)

    Chicago Cubs (+110) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) | O/U 7.0 (-105/-115)

    Starting Pitchers: Cade Horton vs. Paul Skenes

    Cade Horton hasn’t been overwhelmed by the bright lights of the Majors. He’s also not hitting a rookie wall. On the contrary, Horton is mowing down the opposition down the stretch. In 10 starts spanning 53.1 innings in the second half, Horton has a sterling 0.84 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, 7.0 BB% and 23.0 K%.

    Much like Horton has done his best work on the bump lately, he’s also gotten off to his best starts lately. After allowing at least one run in the first inning in half of his first 10 starts, he’s rattled off 10 consecutive scoreless first innings entering tonight.

    As well as Horton has pitched, he’s the B-side of this National League Central pitching duel. Paul Skenes is on a crash course with the 2025 National League Cy Young Award. He has a 1.92 ERA, 2.52 xERA, 3.30 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA in 30 starts, supported by dazzling underlying data.

    Skenes has also been unreal early in games. According to Baseball Reference, Skenes has allowed only one run on 17 hits and four walks with 34 strikeouts in the first inning of 30 starts this season. In other words, Skenes has tallied a scoreless first inning in 29-of-30 starts, including all 14 of his home starts. Remarkably, Skenes has allowed only five runs in the first two innings combined of his 30 starts. As a result, I expect Horton and Skenes to combine for an NRFI, prompting me to suggest it, even at a chalky -170 line.

    Pick: NRFI (-170)

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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