MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/17)
DraftKings Sportsbook regularly posts the most popular MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks each day. Based on yesterday’s results, the public didn’t fare too well on MLB yes runs first inning picks (YRFI), with two of the top three bets in terms of both money wagered and ticket counts going 1-2.
Let's build off of two profitable 2-1 NRFI columns in a row and dive into some games on today’s slate for our top MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 10-10 (-1.68 units, -8.4% ROI)
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Eury Perez vs. Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay entered the weekend having won 17 of its last 20 games while posting a 1.90 ERA in that span.
When Tampa Bay started that streak, going 13-1, it averaged 4.3 runs per game and received strong contributions from its entire pitching staff, posting a 1.78 starting pitching ERA and a 0.63 bullpen ERA.
The Rays also had a stretch of allowing three earned runs or fewer in 16 straight games, becoming the first to accomplish that feat in 15 or more games since Houston in 2022.
Drew Rasmussen's 2.82 ERA is tied for the second-best among active pitchers since the start of 2022 (minimum 400 innings), along with Max Fried and Blake Snell. He has a run value of 36 on his four-seam fastball, which is the highest on that pitch, a sinker or cutter since the start of 2025.
Miami's offense ranks 18th in wRC+ and 23rd in slugging rate against right-handed pitching, so I’m really banking on Eury Perez throwing a clean first inning since Rasmussen seems to have his half on lockdown.
Pick: NRFI (-140)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Paul Skenes
Two of MLB’s best pitchers are toeing the rubber, and I’m betting the YRFI?
This wager makes more sense when realizing that while Skenes has a ridiculously low 1.98 ERA, he has an 8.31 first-inning ERA, and hasn’t allowed a run in either the second or third innings.
In Philadelphia’s 6-0 victory yesterday, the top three of the batting order (Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper) drove in all the runs. With Schwarber belting nine home runs in the last nine games and becoming the second-fastest player in team history to 20 home runs (45 games), he alone is worth the YRFI wager.
Pick: YRFI (+130)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Michael Soroka vs. Michael Lorenzen
Michael Soroka is coming off his first good road outing of the season (6.1 scoreless innings). But he still has a 7.20 ERA and .295 opponents’ batting average in road starts because of two other rocky appearances, which should only be exacerbated in Denver.
Soroka has a 2.70 ERA in two career games against Colorado, but neither game was played at Denver’s altitude.
Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen isn't off to a great start in his first season with the Rockies, as he has pitched to a troubling 9.64 ERA and .416 opponents’ batting average in four Coors Field starts.
With players like Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Ildemaro Vargas and Mickey Moniak due up in the first inning, the YRFI is a great value wager.
Pick: YRFI (-155)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.