MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/24)
The weekend got off to a bang from a MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks perspective, as six of the 14 games from Friday’s slate cashed the yes runs first inning (YRFI) play on first-inning home runs alone.
Last week’s poor 0-3 showing slowed the momentum from the previous two weeks’ profitable 2-1 NRFI columns, but I’m back to dive into some games on today’s slate for our top MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 10-13 (-4.68 units, -20.4% ROI)
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles (second game of doubleheader)
Starting Pitchers: Keider Montero vs. Trevor Rogers
Detroit entered the weekend amid a season-high seven-game losing streak.
When it had lost 14 of its first 16 games after Tarik Skubal went on the injured list (IL), the team was batting just .196 over that span, averaging 2.4 runs per game, belting nine home runs and hitting .125 with runners in scoring position.
But poor pitching was also an issue for its struggles, specifically a collective 4.82 ERA from its starting pitchers over that span.
Keider Montero is on pace for the worst groundball rate and highest fly-ball rate of his three-year career. That suggests regression in his 1.1 HR/9 rate is coming and should soon align more with his 1.7 and 1.6 rates over the last two seasons.
I’m also down on Trevor Rogers, who is coming off allowing a season-high seven earned runs. The southpaw has pitched to an 11.84 ERA and .375 opponent batting average in his last 19 innings, spanning five starts (all losses).
Pick: YRFI (-105)
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Noah Schultz vs. Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray is coming off the worst start of his career, allowing the most earned runs (nine) and hits (11) of his previous 271 starts.
However, Ray is due for a bounce-back outing, given his egregious home-and-road splits - 6.84 ERA in five road starts versus a 1.91 ERA in five starts at Oracle Park.
The southpaw should continue to use the ballpark's cavernous dimensions to limit a White Sox offense that is heavily reliant on home runs. Chicago entered the weekend with the second-most homers hit off left-handed pitching, and the third-best wRC+ in that split.
Chicago entered the weekend ranked 15th in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) with a mark of .285 against left-handed pitching, with the seventh-highest strikeout rate. Ray has a path to another strong home start if his swing-and-miss stuff is dialed in.
While Noah Schultz’s control issues were a concern through his first five starts (15% walk rate), he allowed zero walks in his last start against the Mariners. He should use that confidence to improve a respectable 3.86 first-inning ERA (his second-best ERA of any of the first four innings).
Pick: NRFI (-125)
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: MacKenzie Gore vs. Reid Detmers
Texas has a respectable 5-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers, but based on its metrics, most of those wins came in low-scoring affairs.
The Rangers rank 27th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA and 28th in ISO, while striking out at the highest rate against left-handed pitching in the American League.
Reid Detmers has owned the head-to-head matchups against two Rangers batters (Ezequiel Duran and Josh Jung) who figure to bat in the first inning. They are a combined 1-for-26 with 13 strikeouts against the southpaw.
Meanwhile, the Angels have scored two or fewer runs in five of Detmers' 10 starts, and should get off to another slow start offensively.
Pick: NRFI (+100)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.