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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (6/7)

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It was a mixed bag from an MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks perspective to kick off the weekend, as the top yes runs first inning (YRFI) bets based on money wagered went 1-2, while the most popular NRFI bets went 2-1.

Last week’s 2-1 showing makes it three out of the last four weeks being profitable in our NRFI columns. I’m back to dive into some games on today’s slate for our top MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks. 

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          Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

          Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 14-15 (-3.19 units, -11% ROI)

          Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees 

          Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs. Cam Schlittler

          New York's splits with and without Aaron Judge since the 2022 season are staggering:

          Games Win Rate Runs/G Home Runs/G OBP Slugging Rate
          With 625 59.2% 5.0 1.6 .328 .435
          Without 85 42.4% 3.8 1.1 .294 .367

          Cam Schlittler is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing five runs over 4.1 innings to the Guardians and striking out just three batters. But he pitched to a 1.07 ERA over his previous eight starts, including allowing one earned run over a season-high eight innings in a win at Fenway Park on April 23RD.

          Schlittler has also done well to limit opposing teams' power, with the fourth-lowest OPS allowed among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings (.514). After yesterday’s rainout, we’re getting more value on this wager with Ranger Suarez starting instead of Connelly Early.

          Pick: NRFI (-115)

          Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

          Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs. Kevin Gausman

          Shane Baz got off to a horrible start over his first eight outings this season, pitching to a 5.48 ERA, 7.7 K/9 rate, .292 opponents’ batting average and .856 opponents’ OPS. But over his last four starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA.

          Baz is opposed by Kevin Gausman, the strikeout specialist, who has the third-most double-digit strikeout games (26) since the start of 2020. Gausman is on pace for his best K:BB ratio and FIP in four seasons.

          While Gausman’s 4.85 first-inning ERA is tied for the worst of any of his first six innings this season, he has allowed just a .238 batting average to opposing Orioles over his career, and a .217/.261/.470 slash line when limiting that split to current Orioles hitters. Baz has also had success against the current Blue Jays lineup, limiting them to a .234/.258/.355 slash line over 64 at-bats.

          The YRFI has cashed in two straight Baz starts and each of Gausman’s last three, but I’m bucking those trends today.

          Pick: NRFI (-130)

          Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers

          Starting Pitchers: Joey Cantillo vs. Jacob deGrom

          Jacob deGrom just won his 100th game in his last start. In the process, he made history by recording 1,929 strikeouts at the time of his 100th career win, which is the most in MLB history (Yu Darvish is second with 1,862).

          The ace’s Hall of Fame candidacy will be interesting. Among pitchers to debut in the live ball era (since 1920, minimum 1500 innings), deGrom ranks third in ERA (2.62), second in K/9 (10.8) and first in WHIP (0.99).

          This wager seemingly comes down to Joey Cantillo’s ability to hold down the fort in his half of the first inning. He has allowed four earned runs in three of his last four starts, but has pitched to a tidy 2.08 first-inning ERA and has allowed a .196/.275/.391 slash line in the first inning of his 13 starts. I expect the NRFI to cash in his seventh straight start.

          Pick: NRFI (-140)

          Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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