MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (7/26)
Four straight 2-1 weeks with our MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks have us a comfortable three games over .500 for the season in that market. We’re looking to steer closer to turning profits with another three-pack of plays. Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for some of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for a fifth straight week.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 26-23 (-1.94 units, -4.0% ROI)
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon vs. Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft is a solid first inning pitcher, pitching to a 2.89 ERA and .206 OBA in 28 chances. But this afternoon he is up against several feared Cubs sluggers, like Ian Happ who entered the weekend amid a 42-game on-base streak at PNC Park, while hitting safely in 35 of those 42. He will also have to deal with Pete Crow-Armstrong, who logged a .358 batting average with 16 home runs, 32 RBI, and a 1.195 OPS over his last 45 games leading up to the weekend.
This wager is also a fade of Jameson Taillon, who has pitched to a 6.21 road ERA and an 8.18 ERA against the Pirates this season.
Pick: YRFI (-111)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Ronel Blanco vs. Erick Fedde
Chicago has won each of Erick Fedde's last four starts with a plus-15 run differential, with two wins coming against current AL playoff teams. They have broken out the bats when he toes the rubber, which is why I’m confident in this YRFI play despite him pitching to a 2.70 ERA or better each of the last two months.
Fedde has done a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark of late, with two home runs allowed over his last 29.2 innings. But now he will have to deal with Jeremy Pena who is slashing an absurd .410/.442/.641 in July while amid an active nine-game hitting streak, and AL Triple Crown candidate Yordan Alvarez in the first inning.
Meanwhile, Ronel Blanco looked rusty in his first start of the season on Monday issuing three walks. He only allowed two hits, but both were home runs. That's a dangerous way to make a living when facing a White Sox lineup that ranks in the top 10 in homers.
Pick: YRFI (-120)
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Jacob deGrom
This is an AL West battle between the top two team’s aces in a hitter friendly ballpark, so of course I’m backing the NRFI.
Logan Gilbert is coming off tying a season-high 10 strikeouts. His 129 K’s were the fifth-most in the American League at the conclusion of his last start, and he is 6-2 with a 2.42 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9 rate in his last 10 outings.
Meanwhile, I’m not jumping off the Jacob deGrom bandwagon after his fourth start of five-plus runs, after he had five such instances in 50 starts from 2022-2025. deGrom has allowed just one run over nine innings against the light-hitting Mariners this season, and he did not allow a run until the third inning in his last blow-up start.
Pick: NRFI (-154)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.