MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (8/16)
Last week’s 2-1 week made it seven straight profitable weeks with a 2-1 record or better for our MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks. That has us a comfortable eight games over .500 for the season in that market, and we’re looking to build on our profits with another three-pack of plays.
Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for one of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for an eighth straight week.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 33-25 (+1.47 units, +2.5% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs. Freddy Peralta
Orioles ace Trevor Rogers was given some extra rest after his regularly scheduled start yesterday was pushed back. The southpaw should be ramped up while trying to improve upon his 4-0 record and 1.99 ERA in his last eight starts. Baltimore's record in that span is 7-1.
Rogers has come a long way from his first 10 starts, where he went 2-6 with a 6.84 ERA. In those 48.2 innings, he allowed a .291 opponents' batting average and eight home runs. But over his last 11 starts, Rogers is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA. In those 67 innings, he has limited opponents to a .215 average and allowed just three homers.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta has pitched to a 5.37 ERA, the second-best among qualified starters. He is making his home Rays debut in this outing, and his .247 batting average allowed in the first inning is his lowest of any of the first five innings this season.
This wager seems to come down to Peralta, as Rogers has cashed the NRFI in 13 straight starts.
Pick: NRFI (-104)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Dobbins vs. Edward Cabrera
Most will expect rust from a pitcher making his first start in nearly two months. But Edward Cabrera shined in his latest rehab assignments, throwing five no-hit innings last week. And over his last two rehab outings, Cabrera recorded a 15:1 K:BB ratio while allowing one unearned run over nine innings.
I am giving a pass to Cabrera for his 7.55 ERA over his final seven starts prior to landing on the injured list (IL), as those were marred by blister and leg issues.
Meanwhile, Hunter Dobbins’ 61st percentile groundball rate and 71st percentile barrel rate play well at Wrigley Field. I expect positive regression in the first inning, as his .227 opponents’ batting average and .214 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed in the first inning are not conducive to his 4.50 ERA in the first frame.
Pick: NRFI (-106)
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Hunter Brown
Bryan Woo's road struggles squashed any notion of him taking home Cy Young hardware this season. Woo is 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA in 10 home starts, while pitching to a 0.75 WHIP and 69:11 K:BB ratio. But Woo is also 1-8 with a 6.22 ERA in 12 road starts, while logging a .292 opponents’ batting average.
Wood could get into trouble very early when having to face Triple Crown threat Yordan Alvarez. Through 74 games against the division rival entering the weekend (including playoffs), Alvarez has a .315 batting average with 21 home runs, 71 RBI and a 1.029 OPS.
On the other side, Hunter Brown has a respectable 2.25 first-inning ERA this season. But he should have his share of issues early, especially against Julio Rodriguez, who has a .926 OPS in 24 head-to-head at-bats. We’re backing the Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) side on this one today.
Pick: YRFI (-111)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.