MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (8/23)
Last week’s 2-1 result made it eight straight profitable weeks with a 2-1 record or better for our MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks. That has us a comfortable nine games over .500 for the season in that market, and we’re looking to build on our profits with another three-pack of plays.
Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for one of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for a ninth straight week.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 35-26 (+2.34 units, +3.8% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Leahy vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Cristopher Sanchez is toeing the rubber at Citizens Bank Park, and that alone is worthy of a blind NRFI wager.
Sanchez is coming off of his 16th win (tying the MLB lead), while his 187 strikeouts are second-most in the National League. While he has dominated the Marlins (4-0 with a 0.64 ERA in six career starts), he has been dominant at home all season.
Sanchez’s 1.42 home ERA is the second-lowest ERA through 15 home starts in a single season in Phillies history (since 1912, when earned runs became an official stat in the National League).
On the other side, it’s already been announced that Kyle Leahy’s workload will be significantly decreased for the remainder of the season. The righty has already thrown over 34 innings more than last season. But that doesn’t impact his ability to navigate a clean first inning, and he certainly hasn’t shown signs of tiredness, with a 1.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 52:9 K:BB through 52.1 innings over his last 10 starts.
These are great NRFI odds on two pitchers who have combined for 17 straight NRFI starts between them.
Pick: NRFI (-132)
San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Matt Wilkinson vs. Jake Bennett
Giants lefty Matt Wilkinson makes the surprise start for his second MLB outing after Carson Whisenhunt was pushed back to Monday. Wilkinson allowed five fly balls to two ground balls in his two innings of work against the Guardians, and that is a dangerous way to live at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
On the other side, San Francisco should be comfortable facing a Boston southpaw for the second consecutive day. Prior to facing Patrick Sandoval, the Giants ranked in the top 10 in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties.
By loading up their lineup with mostly right-handed batters, they are at an advantage taking aim at the Green Monster instead of Fenway Park's cavernous right field.
Trends support a high-scoring interleague affair. The over has cashed in five of the last six games for the Red Sox, and is 5-1 in their last six games against National League West opponents. This game points to betting on the Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) side of the market.
Pick: YRFI (+112)
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga vs. Bryce Miller
On the surface, a matchup of Mariners batters facing a left-handed starting pitcher should scream NRFI, considering Seattle ranks dead last in BABIP and slugging rate against southpaws. However, Shota Imanaga has posted a poor 5.04 first-inning ERA this season, undone by six early home runs despite a solid .196 opponents’ batting average.
The real reason for liking the YRFI side is Bryce Miller’s recent downturn. Miller has allowed five earned runs in three of his last five starts. The Mariners are also 0-7 in his last seven outings, while the righty has a 6.57 ERA and put 59 runners on base over those 37 innings.
That is a dangerous way to live, especially when you have to face Pete Crow-Armstrong. The slugger entered the weekend having hit five home runs in a five-game span. Three of those were leadoff homers, giving him seven on the season. That is the third-most by a Cubs player in the modern era (since 1900), and one more would tie Rick Monday for second most, who hit eight in 1976.
Pick: YRFI (-108)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.