MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/13)
Last week’s 0-3 result from our MLB no-runs-first-inning (NRFI) picks column snapped a streak of 10 consecutive profitable weeks, but we come back motivated to get back in the win column and start another streak of profitable weeks.
Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for some of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for the 11th time in 12 weeks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 39-31 (+1.10 units, +1.6% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Painter vs. Grant Holmes
Atlanta's Grant Holmes took a hard-luck no-decision in his last start after he pitched six scoreless innings against Philadelphia in a game the Braves ultimately lost 1-0.
In that outing, Holmes got whiffs on 39% of his pitches (17 of 44) and generated a 33% called strike + whiff rate. In a day and age where pitchers are throwing harder and harder, Holmes did more than get by with an average 90.2 miles per hour (MPH) velocity.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia lost each of Andrew Painter's two starts against the Braves, while the southpaw allowed eight of the nine runs in that span. But none of those runs came in the first inning, as Atlanta’s lineup seems to make adjustments against him as the game wears on.
Pick: NRFI (+124)
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott vs. Cam Schlittler
Cam Schlittler may be young, but he is already having a season to remember. He became the fourth-youngest Yankees pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts in a single season, and he has 20 starts allowing one run. That's the most in a single season in Yankees history (three others had 18 such starts).
To add to that nostalgia, Schlittler is coming off his fourth start of 10+ strikeouts and zero walks, which is tied for the second-most such starts in a single season in Yankees history (Gerrit Cole had six in 2021).
This wager seems to come down to Christian Scott, and I’m encouraged by his 3.43 first-inning ERA and .208 opponents’ batting average in that split.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs. Dylan Cease
Cam Schlittler isn’t the only American League Cy Young Award candidate toeing the rubber today, as Dylan Cease looks to close the gap with only a few starts left.
Cease entered his last start amid a three-game winning streak and had pitched to a 5-1 record, 1.36 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 rate in 11 starts since July 1st. And at the time, among pitchers with at least 100 innings, he ranked fifth in ERA, third in FIP and tied for second in xERA. He was also second in opponents’ batting average, opponents’ OPS, strikeout rate and whiff rate.
It’s crazy to think I have more confidence than Cease’s counterpart in this matchup, as Trevor Rogers brings a streak of 18 consecutive scoreless first innings into this American League East tilt.
Pick: NRFI (-170)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.