MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/27)
Ahead of our last MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks column of the regular season, we find ourselves eight games over .500, with profitable weeks in 11 of the last 13.
Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice on some of today’s plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn a profit for the 12th time in 14 weeks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 42-34 (+0.53 units, +0.7% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Jared Jones vs. River Ryan
Jared Jones has been the ace of the Pirates’ pitching staff in September. This month alone, he has pitched to a 1.08 ERA over 25 innings, with a 35:4 K:BB ratio, .140 opponents’ batting average and .352 opponents’ OPS. Most impressively, he ended his last start with a 0.78 FIP, the best among all MLB pitchers this month (minimum 15 innings).
On the other side, River Ryan makes his second appearance of the season. His first went swimmingly well, as he held the Nationals to two hits over three scoreless innings. And in his short-lived MLB career, Ryan has allowed only three runs over 23.1 innings.
Pick: NRFI (-122)
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. DJ Herz
Sean Manaea has held opposing left-handed batters to a .386 slugging rate, with 13 of his 42 hits allowed in that split going for extra bases.
James Wood is back hitting at the top of the Nationals’ lineup, but Manaea has neutralized him over his career, holding him to two hits in 13 at-bats. Fellow teammate CJ Abrams, who also has 30+ home runs, hasn't fared much better with five hits (and no home runs) in 17 head-to-head at-bats.
This wager seemingly comes down to DJ Herz's ability to manage a clean first inning against Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. Herz allowed two earned runs in the first inning of his first start, but I'm banking on him holding left-handed batters hitless as he did against the Tigers.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Andre Pallante vs. Jacob Misiorowski
Andre Pallante toes the rubber for the Cardinals and has pitched to a respectable .231 opponents’ batting average in September. That suggests he deserves a better ERA than 3.86 over 21 innings. But he is likely due further regression against a Brewers lineup that has combined for a .333/.418/.510 triple slash line and three home runs in 105 at-bats against him.
Milwaukee is one of seven teams Pallante has thrown double-digit innings against this season, and his 9.00 ERA against the Brewers is the highest against all teams in that split (his next-worst is 6.30 against the Giants).
All it takes is one team to score to cash this Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) wager, but for what it's worth, the Cardinals are one of five teams to homer multiple times off Jacob Misiorowski this season.
In addition, St. Louis has a loaded top of the lineup. Jordan Walker is one home run away from becoming the first St. Louis player to hit 30 home runs since 2022 (Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt). And Alec Burleson has an MLB-high 115 RBI while seeking to become the first Cardinals player to lead the Majors in RBI since 1971 (Joe Torre, 137).
Pick: YRFI (+116)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.