MLB Odds & Picks: Cardinals, Nationals, Mets, Astros (Wednesday)
It has not been since April of 2021 that the Cincinnati Reds were in sole possession of first place in the NL Central, but they have built a half-game cushion over the Milwaukee Brewers thanks to a ten-game winning streak where they gained six games in that span. Will the hottest team in baseball run its winning streak to 11 today?
Here are our MLB best bets for Wednesday.
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals (-172) vs. Washington Nationals (+144)| O/U 9 (-106/-114)
The St. Louis Cardinals have averaged 7.5 runs per game during a four-game winning streak and scored five or more runs in five of the previous six games. And over the last seven days entering Tuesday, they ranked 13th in hard-hit contact and fourth in HR/FB ratio.
Washington Nationals righty Trevor Williams has allowed a .326/.344/.558 slash line in 86 combined at-bats to current Cardinals hitters, and St. Louis should be able to hang some crooked numbers against him, as he has allowed 4+ runs six times. Furthermore, Williams’ home run allowed rate is worse at home, and his K:BB ratio is 1.64 at home compared to 3.1 on the road. Two Cardinals starters in particular, Nolan Arenado and Paul DeJong, are a combined 11-for-32 (.344) with six extra-base hits (including three home runs) against Williams, and we expect them to use their .994 OPSs against the righty to lead the offensive onslaught.
Pick: Cardinals team total Over 5 (-104)
New York Mets (+134) vs. Houston Astros (-158) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
After splitting the first two games of this three-game series, the New York Mets are in danger of dropping another series. The Mets are 1-6-1 in their previous eight series and have not won a road series since taking two of three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers from April 17-19.
Cristian Javier is second among all Houston Astros starters in ERA (2.90), WHIP (1.04), WAR (2.2), and quality starts (eight) and is tied with Framber Valdez with seven wins. Per Inside Edge, Javier has the longest active streak of hitless two-strike at-bats that end in a curveball (39), and that is arguably not even his best pitch, as his fastball ranks in the top 30 of all qualified starting pitchers, per Stuff+.
Houston has lost each of Javier’s previous two starts in extra innings, but before that had won six straight when he toed the rubber, with him earning the victory in five of them. This wager is also a fade of New York Mets righty Tylor Megill, who has pitched to a 7.42, .341 OBA, and 2.14 WHIP in seven road starts.
Houston has won nine of the previous ten home meetings against New York, so we are getting a good price given that trend in the series finale.
Pick: Astros ML (-158)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.