Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/28)
If you need any further proof of the old adage that baseball is a long season with many ups and downs, look no further than the top two teams in the AL East, as the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are two of five teams in Major League Baseball with 50-plus wins, but have went 2-8 and 4-6, respectively in their last 10 games entering Thursday. Furthermore, the Yankees have lost four consecutive series and are amid their first four-game losing streak of the season, while the Orioles endured their longest losing streak (five games) since 2022 this week.
We have gone 5-1 combined with our MLB Best Bets on Monday and Wednesday, and are back to keep the momentum going heading into the weekend.
Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday’s Best Bets
Here are our top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Astros (-116) @ New York Mets (-102) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)
The New York Mets offense has been on fire, and is the biggest reason they have clawed back to .500 (39-39) from a low point of when they were 28-37 on June 11. New York entered Wednesday’s series finale against the Yankees near the top in almost every offensive category in June, ranking first in runs/game (6.2), batting average (.287), and OPS (.859), while also ranking second in slugging percentage (.504) and third in average with runners in scoring position (.310). All they did on Wednesday to top that was pound the Yankees’ No. 1 pitching staff for 12 runs on 12 hits, including three home runs and batting .400 (6-for-15) with runners in scoring position.
New York’s offensive surge is tied to its move to Francisco Lindor to the leadoff spot on May 18, as it ranked second in runs per game (5.5), and first in average (.272), slugging percentage (.475), and OPS (.816) since then entering Wednesday. The Mets have won 59% of their games (49 of 83) following an off-day since the start of the 2021 season, and we are buying them against Houston Astros righty Ronel Blanco, despite the Astros out-scoring opponents 12-3 in three straight wins the last three times he has toed the rubber.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-102)
Cleveland Guardians (-118) @ Kansas City Royals (+100) | O/U 10 (-115/-105)
The Kansas City Royals are 6-12 in their last 18 games, and entered Thursday’s series opener against the Cleveland Guardians averaging just 2.8 runs per game in that stretch, while also collectively slashing .199/.262/.331 with a .232 BABIP in that stretch. The Royals were even four outs away from being shut out by the lowly Miami Marlins in Wednesday’s series finale, but rallied for five runs with two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning, a rally that was kick-started by Bobby Witt Jr.’s two-out triple.
Witt should have another productive day when facing Guardians righty Triston McKenzie, against whom he is 4-for-12, with two home runs and a 1.301 OPS. However, the shortstop cannot carry the offense by himself, and is likely not to get much production from Salvador Perez hitting behind him, as Perez is just 4-for-20 with a .238 on-base percentage in his career against McKenzie.
Conversely, Cleveland’s offense averaged 5.9 runs per game in three straight series wins over the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles, but the Royals have held opponents to four or fewer runs in three of Alec Marsh’s last four starts, including a win against the Yankees when he threw seven shutout innings. The Under was 10-3 in Kansas City’s last 13 games entering Thursday (+7.70 units/54% ROI), and we expect it to be the right side of the total again tonight.
MLB Pick: Under 10 (-105)
Minnesota Twins (+108) @ Seattle Mariners (-126) | O/U 7 (-118/-104)
The series opener against the Minnesota Twins on Friday night will be “home sweet home” for the Seattle Mariners, who went 3-6 on a nine-game road trip and are playing their first home game since June 16. The Mariners are one of the league’s best home teams (27-12) and have covered the runline in 20 of those 39 games. Their pitching is also elite at home with a collective 2.54 ERA, while the team has struggled to a 19-25 road record in large part because of a 4.55 ERA away from home.
Seattle’s Logan Gilbert leads the team’s rotation in ERA (2.71), WAR (2.4), and WHIP (0.89), and has won back-to-back starts while pitching 16 scoreless innings in that span. He has a .185 OBA through seven home starts and an even better .163 OBA in June, and we expect him to lead the Mariners to a convincing victory in this series opener against Bailey Ober and the Twins, as Minnesota is 0-6 in Ober’s six starts against teams over .500, while getting out-scored 47-14 in that span.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-126)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.