Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/12)
Underdogs went a sizzling 11-6 SU on Wednesday, the last day we published an MLB Best Bets article, and we took advantage of one of the underdogs (the Detroit Tigers) en route to a perfect 3-0 day. We are back to keep the momentum going heading into the weekend as we analyze our favorite plays from a loaded Friday Major League Baseball schedule.
Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday’s Best Bets
Here are our top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Yankees (-126) @ Baltimore Orioles (+108) | O/U 9 (-108/-112)
Just two games separate the Yankees and Orioles in this important AL East showdown, and Baltimore has a dominant 5-2 season series edge. While we were tempted to back Baltimore on the moneyline given that Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has not looked like himself just yet, we find value in the Under, as Orioles southpaw Cade Povich is undervalued despite pitching to a 6.51 ERA this season.
Povich’s ERA is inflated because of two poor starts against the Blue Jays and A’s, where he allowed 14 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings. However, the lefty has performed his best against the stiffest competition, allowing just four earned runs in 10 1/3 innings against first place teams (the Guardians and Yankees), and two earned runs in 11 innings against the Braves and the defending champion Rangers. The Yankees have also struggled all season against left-handed pitching, especially lately, as they rank 24th in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging against southpaws since June 1. Those struggles are evident in New York’s record, as it is 46-26 against right-handed starting pitchers, but 10-13 when a lefty takes the mound. And we are also banking on a vintage Gerrit Cole performance to keep this a low-scoring game, especially since he has pitched to a 2.27 ERA in seven career starts at Camden Yards.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-112)
Colorado Rockies (+194) @ New York Mets (-235) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
The New York Mets stayed hot by finishing a three-game home sweep of the Washington Nationals, a series in which they out-scored their division rivals 20-7. New York has now lost just one of its last 12 series (7-1-4 in that span), and look to make a statement against a Colorado Rockies team that is just 3-9 against NL East teams and whose 13-34 road record is only better than the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics.
Sean Manaea’s 1.5 WAR is second among all Mets pitchers, and the team has won his last three starts while out-scoring opponents by 16 runs in that span. Colorado ranks 24th in wRC+ in road games against left-handed pitchers, while also slashing .232/.293/.361 in that split. If the Rockies cannot score runs, it should make for a long day, especially since we have no trust in Tanner Gordon in his second career start, after he allowed five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings in his MLB debut to the Kansas City Royals last week.
The Mets have been the NL’s best offense in terms of wRC+ in home games against right-handed pitchers since June, and we expect them to improve to 39-34 against the runline in league games in this series opener.
MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (-113)
Chicago Cubs (+164) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-196) | O/U 8 (-118/-104)
Ever since 2021 when Chicago Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks went 14-7, he has been trending in the wrong direction. Hendricks is now on pace for career-worsts in WHIP (1.579), H/9 (11.4), HR/9 (1.8) and BB/9 (2.8). He is being overvalued in this matchup against the division rival Cardinals, as he is 13-4 with a 2.62 ERA in 27 career appearances (26 starts) against St. Louis. He has also held the Cardinals scoreless over 8 2/3 innings (spanning two starts) this season, but has struck out just two batters in that time, and eventually his lack of swing-and-miss stuff will catch up with him, especially against a lineup that has seen him as often as they have recently.
The Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.75 units/15% ROI), and should do so again if Hendricks has another short outing, as the Cubs bullpen entered Thursday ranked 16th in ERA and 21st in FIP.
MLB Pick: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-111)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.