Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/9)
Entering Friday's slate of games, no team in Major League Baseball has a winning percentage higher than .600, which means that no team is on pace for more than 97 wins. After a first half in which it appeared at least four teams were on 100-pace wins, the best teams in the league have played mediocre baseball since then, which has muddled most of the Division and Wild Card races.
Today's slate has a loaded 16 games thanks to the all-important doubleheader between the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins, which will go a long way in determining how the tight AL Central race plays out. What other games do we have our eye on today?
Read on for our MLB Best Bets for Friday, August 9.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles (-134) at Tampa Bay Rays (+114) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
The Tampa Bay Rays will be eager to face former teammate Zach Eflin for the first time after trading him at the deadline, and playing behind him for the last two seasons should have their hitters plenty familiar with his arsenal. Eflin has led the Baltimore Orioles to wins in each of his first two starts with the team, but he has still allowed 15 hits in the 12 1/3 innings, and been tagged for two home runs.
Meanwhile, the Rays have won two of Zack Littell's last three home starts, with a +10 run differential in that span. The opposition has not scored more than four runs in six of his last eight home starts, and the righty has pitched to an impressive 3.00 ERA and .239 OBA in his 11 starts at Tropicana Field. One of those was a quality start at home against these Orioles in a 9-2 loss where he was responsible for just three of the runs allowed. However, the Orioles are just 13-16 since July 4 (the third-worst mark in the AL) and have the league's fourth-worst ERA in that span. Yes, the Rays traded away several key offensive pieces at the trade deadline, but they are talented enough to scratch a win in this series opener.
MLB Pick: Rays Moneyline (+114)
Houston Astros (+114) at Boston Red Sox (-134) | O/U 9.5 (-112/-108)
The Boston Red Sox return home to Fenway Park after a six-game road trip, and that should mean a slugfest is in order, as five of the previous six Boston home games have seen 10-plus runs scored (and half of those have had 16-plus runs scored).
Over the last 30 days, Boston's offense leads the Majors in wRC+ and all three slash line categories (.300/.358/.533 slash line), and has mashed an AL-high 41 home runs. Thus, the Red Sox should score plenty against Astros righty Ronel Blanco, whose ERA rose from 2.59 in June to 4.40 in July. Blanco has been a victim of the long ball, allowing nine home runs in his last seven starts, so I would also definitely look into some Red Sox player props for who is most likely to homer.
Conversely, Boston is 0-3 in Tanner Houck's three second-half starts, as he has a rotation-worst 4.95 FIP in that span. Houck is not missing many bats amid his struggles, as his 6.65 K/9 rate in the last three starts is much lower than his season average, and the Rangers have a great chance at matching the eight runs per game average that the opposition has scored in Houck's last three trips to the mound. Texas should also have success if Houck continues to struggle with command, as Brendan Tuma posted this before Houck allowed two more walks in his last start versus the Rangers.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-112)
Chicago Cubs (-154) at Chicago White Sox (+130) | O/U 8 (-108/-112)
The Chicago Cubs have quietly played solid baseball of late, winning three of their last four series against playoff hopefuls (Royals, Cardinals, Twins). The Cubs are still within range of a Wild Card spot (they start the day five games back), and should get fat in this crosstown series against the lowly White Sox, who are 1-18 in the second half.
This run line would be much steeper if not for Garret Crochet toeing the rubber for the White Sox, but he has not been allowed to pitch past the fourth inning in any of his previous five starts as the organization is committed to limiting his innings down the stretch. In addition, the Cubs are 7-2 in Jameson Taillon's nine starts against teams outside the NL Central, and he is having a solid year with xSLG and wOBA rates that are on pace to be by far his best of any of the previous three seasons.
The Cubs are 12-6 against the run line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.05 units/15% ROI), and should again cover the run line against a White Sox squad that would have cost its backers 26.75 units and a -20% ROI if they bet their run line in each of the last 112 games.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.