MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/23)
Most Major League Baseball teams will play their 81st games this week, which is significant because it will mark the midway point of the season. We are banking on the big sample size of games and data helping us profitably start another new week with our top two plays from Monday’s nine-game slate. Read on for our top MLB picks and bets for Monday, June 23.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Monday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-118) at New York Mets (+100) | O/U 9.0 (+100/-122)
This is just the third game the Mets have been a home underdog this season; they are a profitable 2-1 as home underdogs. But it is easy to see why New York is a home underdog in this series opener, and we are backing the rightful road favorites.
The Braves swept the Mets at home last week, outscoring their division rivals by 12 runs over the three games. The closest of the three games was the one started by Spencer Schwellenbach, which Atlanta won 5-4 in 10 innings after New York tagged Schwellenbach for four runs in seven innings. But Schwellenbach entered that start, allowing just a .180/.206/.372 slash line in 61 combined at-bats to Mets hitters, so I expect a bounce-back performance from the righty.
New York will likely be sluggish in this series opener after playing on Sunday Night Baseball and coming off an emotionally taxing three-game set against the Phillies. The Mets are also at a big pitching disadvantage with Paul Blackburn toeing the rubber, as the righty has allowed three or more earned runs in three consecutive starts. He only recorded 11 outs against Atlanta last week.
I am backing the Braves at a decent price, especially since they seem to be righting the ship with three series wins in their last four.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-118)
Boston Red Sox (-124) at Los Angeles Angels (+106) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
This play is a complete fade of Red Sox righty Walker Buehler, as the team is 1-4 in his last five starts. Buehler has been shelled lately, pitching to an 11.68 ERA in three June starts, including allowing a season-high eight runs in his last start against the Mariners. He now has a troubling 9.23 ERA in six road starts, while allowing a .359 opponents’ batting average and eight home runs in 26.1 innings in that split.
The Angels had won consecutive home series against division rivals (Mariners and Athletics) before facing the Astros this weekend. They have improved their record every month and are on pace to complete their first month over .500, while Boston is an unprofitable 7-8 as road favorites this year.
Angels righty Jack Kochanowicz has led the team to wins over Seattle and the Yankees in his last three starts. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark (he has allowed four solo home runs over his last two starts), he should give the team more than a puncher’s chances as home underdogs in this series opener.
Pick: Angels Moneyline (+106)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01