Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/26)
Monday’s Major League Baseball slate is loaded with 12 games, which includes two doubleheaders between AL East rivals (Blue Jays and Red Sox) and AL Central rivals (Royals and Guardians). The day begins with four of the six division races being separated by four or fewer games. So what will the standings look like after today as the last week of August begins?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, August 26.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Astros (+142) at Philadelphia Phillies (-168) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
I do not love this spot for the Houston Astros, who arrived late to Philadelphia from Baltimore after playing on Sunday Night Baseball. The Phillies are 11-9 since a six-game losing streak from late July to early August, and have averaged six runs per game over their last 11 games. Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses in Wheeler’s last six starts, but he has had a bit of bad luck not going 4-0 in August thus far, as he has pitched to a 1.73 ERA with a 31:3 K:BB ratio. All four of Wheeler’s August starts have been quality starts, and he has recorded 18-plus outs in each.
In the first half of the season among 135 qualified starting pitchers, Houston’s Ronel Blanco ranked ninth in ERA and first in BABIP. But considering he has already pitched 137 2/3 innings after entering the year with 58 1/3 innings pitched in his career, it is fair to wonder if he will hit a wall down the stretch. Blanco has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 12 innings against top-six offenses in the majors (those three starts came within his last five outings), and we expect the Phillies to do similar damage.
MLB Pick: Phillies -1.5 Runs (+130)
Toronto Blue Jays (+130) at Boston Red Sox (-154) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)
The Red Sox ran into the buzzsaw that was the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend, a team that is 34-13 in their last 47 games, and one that outscored them 23-8 in the weekend series. Fenway Park has not been an overly intimidating place to play all season, as Boston is now 29-35 at home. And things do not get easier when facing a Blue Jays team that is 24-19 since July 6, which is just three percentage points worse than the Yankees for the best record in the AL in that span.
Jose Berrios may have a 5.54 ERA in seven career starts at Fenway Park, and his 1.718 WHIP is his second-worst at any ballpark where he has made at least two starts. However, the Blue Jays are 3-0 in Berrios’ last three starts with a +16 run differential in that span, and they should be able to put plenty of runs on the scoreboard against Nick Pivetta, who has allowed multiple home runs in five consecutive outings.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+130)
Detroit Tigers (-152) at Chicago White Sox (+128) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)
With Detroit’s 9-4 win over Chicago on Sunday, the White Sox began the fastest team since 1900 to lose 100 games (131 games). Chicago now needs to go 12-19 to avoid tying the 1962 New York Mets for the most losses in a season in the modern era.
We do not need to go into too much analysis to pick against the lowly White Sox, who are relatively short underdogs considering Detroit’s starting pitcher Ty Madden is making his MLB debut. However, Madden is the second-best pitching prospect in their system according to MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, and others. He pitched to a 5.83 ERA over his last five starts at Triple-A but his 2.80 FIP is a massive improvement over the 5.28 FIP he pitched to in his previous 18 starts. Either way, the White Sox have lost six of their last seven games as underdogs of +100 to +130, so we are not missing an opportunity to fade one of MLB’s worst teams ever.
MLB Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-152)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.