MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/11)
We’ve got a full slate of games in the MLB on Mother’s Day! We wouldn’t mind some extra cash for Mother’s Day Dinner, right?
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Sunday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Baltimore Orioles will roll with Zach Eflin today. Eflin is a right-hander who has struck out only 11.8% of batters this season. However, the veteran righty has still limited walks to 1.5%. As a result, he’s allowed a .268 wOBA to his first 68 batters this season.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on an Angels team that has struck out nearly 30% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. The Angels have also walked only 5.3% of the time, so it’s unlikely Los Angeles will be on base very often against Eflin. Ultimately, the Angels have hit a wOBA of .294 as a projected lineup against righties in the last month. Eflin could give up some power, but that power will likely come with nobody on base.
On the other hand, Tyler Anderson will get the call for the Angels. The lefty has only struck out 21% of batters, but he’s also limited walks to 8%. Like Eflin, his low walk rate has helped keep his wOBA down. It’s currently at .275 against his first 162 batters.
Anderson will likely face at least seven righties in the Orioles’ lineup. Those seven righties have hit a .027 ISO and wOBA of .182 against lefties over the last 30 days.
Neither veteran will add a high strikeout rate. But with a few walks and savvy pitching, the Under makes sense between the Orioles and Angels.
Pick: Under 9 (-108)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Jose Urena will get the start for the Toronto Blue Jays. The right-hander began his season with the Mets in Triple-A. Then, he came up to the big leagues, got smoked, and was sent back down, only to sign with the Blue Jays next.
The Blue Jays got a veteran arm who has been incredibly bad throughout his career. Urena faced 35 batters in the MLB so far this season. Those 35 batters have hit a .303 ISO and wOBA of .434 with 35.7% of fly balls, 32.1% of line drives, and only 25% of ground balls induced. Plus, Urena has struck out only 14.3% of batters, while giving up a 17.9% barrel percentage. He’s also added only 7% of swinging strikes.
Urena will face a Mariners projected lineup that has collectively hit a .206 ISO and wOBA of .354. The Mariners don’t walk much but have also struck out only 21.8% of the time against righties. Seattle should be able to earn a lot of big hits against Urena.
Conversely, Bryce Miller will start for the Mariners. He’s been a bit inconsistent this season, but he’s much more trustworthy than Urena. Miller has struck out nearly 21% of batters and has allowed just a .135 ISO and a wOBA of .330. His wOBA is up due to his high walks. But I’d like to think his walks will dip, especially since he only walked 6.2% of 705 batters last season.
Miller has struggled a bit more against righties this season, but the Blue Jays’ righties in the projected lineup have hit a .115 ISO over the last 30 days.
I’ll take the Mariners on the run line at -1.5 (+116).
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+114)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: