MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/18)
We have some nice weather and a loaded MLB slate today. Let’s capitalize.
I’ve added my two favorite MLB bets below. Consider tailing.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
The Athletics will pitch left-hander Jeffrey Springs today. The former Tampa Bay Rays starter has struck out only 17.7% of batters this year while giving up a .169 ISO and a wOBA of .318 to 203 batters.
Additionally, Springs has given up more line drives and fly balls than ground balls this season. He’s already allowed a .179 ISO and wOBA of .316 to 164 righties and will face a Giants lineup that should have eight righties in it.
That said, the Giants’ projected lineup has hit a .185 ISO and wOBA of .379 with nearly 10% of walks over the last 30 days against lefties. This offense has also minimized ground balls to 34.7% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days, which means there’s a good chance the Giants earn plenty of hard contact with the ball in the air. After all, this Giants lineup has added a .398 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) collectively over the last month against lefties.
Meanwhile, the Giants will roll with Justin Verlander. The veteran is not what he used to be. This season, he’s already allowed a .193 ISO and wOBA of .344 to his first 206 batters. Verlander has also struck out fewer than 20% of the batters he has faced this season.
The Athletics have a lot of power potential against Verlander. In the projected lineup, five batters are hitting a .173 ISO or better against righties over the last 30 days. The Athletics have also hit close to 54% of hard contact against righties and have earned a .303 BABIP with their projected lineup against righties. This season, Verlander has allowed an 11.5% barrel percentage. The Athletics should be able to take advantage.
Consider the Over 8.5 in this game.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-108)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Angels look to sweep the Dodgers tonight. The Angels will send out left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. While he’s done very well against lefties, he’s allowed his first 168 righties to hit a .180 ISO and wOBA of .351.
Those righties have struck out just 19% of the time and have walked 10.1% of the time. In addition, they’ve hit 29.4% of fly balls and 25.2% of line drives, while adding only 37.8% of ground balls.
Tonight, Kikuchi will likely face seven righties in the Dodgers’ lineup. Those righties have hit a .317 ISO and wOBA of .454 with 15.9% of strikeouts against lefties over the last 30 days. The other two batters are Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, who have also delivered remarkable numbers against lefties over the previous month.
Collectively, the Dodgers’ projected lineup has hit a .328 ISO and wOBA of .465 against lefties, while striking out only 16.6% of the time. Kikuchi is in trouble.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers will roll with Tony Gonsolin. The right-hander has struck out 32.8% of his first 64 batters. He’s also limited those 64 batters to a .138 ISO and wOBA of .278. Ultimately, he’s been better against righties, limiting righties to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .107. Tonight, he’ll take on an Angels lineup that should have seven righties in it.
Those seven righties have struck out 28% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. As a lineup, the Angels have a .319 wOBA against righties.
Look for the Dodgers to pick up a win by multiple runs and salvage the series.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-111)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: