MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/4)
Just like last Sunday, there are 16 games on the slate today. The weather could delay or even postpone some matchups. However, I’ve added a couple of wagers in games that won’t be impacted by the weather.
Check out my two favorite MLB bets below.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound for today’s game against the Colorado Rockies. Webb has struck out nearly 30% of batters this season. He’s also limited walks to 6.6% and has held his first 167 batters to a .065 ISO and wOBA of .276.
In addition, Webb has induced almost 55% of ground balls and has allowed only 12.3% of fly balls. Webb has been one of the best pitchers in the league to start the season.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Rockies lineup that has hit a .296 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days. This Colorado projected lineup has also struck out 25.9% of the time against righties, while earning below 9% of walks. Webb is in a good position at home against the Rockies.
On the other hand, German Marquez will give it a go for the Rockies. The veteran righty has allowed a .180 ISO and wOBA of .428 to his first 128 batters this year. He’s only struck out 11.7% of batters and has given up almost 30% of line drives to those 128 batters.
The Giants haven’t been any better than the Rockies offensively against righties over the last 30 days, but San Francisco at least has five batters who have struck out below 18% of the time against righties. The Giants will put the ball in play and make things happen. A handful of runs would be enough with Webb on the mound.
Roll with the Giants on the run line.
Pick: Giants -1.5 (-166)
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
It’ll be MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals today. The left-hander has struck out 35.8% of batters this season and has limited walks to 5.5%. In addition, he’s held right-handed batters to a .103 ISO and wOBA of .275 and has thrown an average of 98.86 pitches per start this season.
At the very least, expect the Reds to have eight righties in the lineup. Those righties have hit a .275 ISO and wOBA of .435 against lefties this season. However, Gore should be able to limit the Reds with his high strikeout potential.
The Reds have some solid numbers against lefties, but have also been a bit lucky when you dig deeper. The projected lineup has combined to hit 48.5% of ground balls with only 16.4% of fly balls. This team has also hit only a 5.6% barrel percentage against lefties and has still earned a .374 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The Reds won’t continue earning a high ISO with those stats.
Conversely, Nick Martinez will pitch for the Reds. He’s a right-hander who has allowed a .222 ISO and wOBA of .349 to his first 138 batters faced. He’s struck out only 18.8% of batters and has allowed 31% of line drives, with only 32% of ground balls induced.
The Nationals have limited strikeouts to 19.1% against righties and have also hit a .317 wOBA. This isn’t better than the Reds against lefties, but the Nationals ultimately have the better matchup against Martinez.
After all, Martinez has allowed 47% of hard contact and has added below 10% of swinging strikes this season. He’s also been awful against lefties, giving up a .254 ISO and wOBA of .348, and will take on CJ Abrams, James Wood and Nathaniel Lowe at the top of the order.
Give me the Nationals on the Moneyline.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-102)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: