MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (7/27)
This year in Major League Baseball, there’s no clear-cut favorite to win the World Series. Many of the top teams are hovering around the same record, with only the Toronto Blue Jays with a .600 winning percentage. The second half of the season is going to be super fun.
With that said, I’ve added a couple of MLB best bets to consider for today’s action. Let’s get right to it.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
The best pitching matchup of the day will be in Milwaukee.
The Brewers will send out veteran righty Brandon Woodruff to face a rising star in Eury Perez of the Miami Marlins.
Perez has struck out 28.4% of his last 102 batters. He’s also limited those 102 batters to a .130 ISO and wOBA of .211. In addition, Perez has walked only 5.9% of batters in that time and has earned 14.1% of swinging strikes, while giving up just a 6.2% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, he’ll face a Brewers lineup that has rarely walked against righties over the last month. They’ve got just three batters who have walked more than 7% of the time against righties. As long as Perez throws strikes, it’s likely he’ll pitch well against an aggressive Brewers team.
On the flip side, Woodruff has struck out 39% of his first 59 batters this season. Woodruff was injured for most of the first half of the season. Since his return, he’s been dynamite. Woodruff has walked no batters and has allowed a .209 wOBA to those first 59 batters. Don’t expect Woodruff to throw 100+ pitches, but Milwaukee has a reliable bullpen that will keep the Marlins guessing.
Miami’s last four batters in their projected lineup have all hit a .047 ISO or worse against righties over the last month. Meanwhile, the top of the Marlins’ lineup has struggled with walks. The Marlins are an aggressive bunch, but against Woodruff, they’ll likely struggle to make contact more than they’re used to.
Let’s back the under.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-128)
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Seattle Mariners are on the road, facing the Los Angeles Angels tonight. They’ll have Logan Gilbert on the hill, while the Angels will pitch Kyle Hendricks. Yet, the Mariners are only -164 on the Moneyline?
I’ll back the Mariners every time with Gilbert on the mound at -164 odds.
Gilbert has struck out close to 34% of batters over the last month. He’s also allowed a .098 ISO and wOBA of .274 against his previous 112 batters this season. Beyond that, Gilbert has walked only 7.1% of batters, while adding 13.9% of swinging strikes.
Gilbert will take on an Angels lineup that has collectively hit a .161 ISO with a 22.4% strikeout rate. These aren’t exactly good numbers. Only Mike Trout has hit an ISO of better than .188 against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, Hendricks doesn’t throw much gas. He’s nothing like Gilbert. Instead, he’s struck out 15.4% of batters over the last month and has induced just 28.1% of ground balls. He’s struggled against righties throughout the season but hasn’t had great success against lefties or righties over the last month.
Hendricks has given up more line drives than ground balls induced over the previous month. Hendricks has also gained only 7.6% of swinging strikes this season, which isn’t very good.
Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Jorge Polanco have been red-hot against righties. Cal Raleigh hasn’t been destroying righties over the last month, but he’s always a feared hitter.
Let’s take the Mariners on the Moneyline.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-164)