MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (8/10)
There’s plenty of value on today’s MLB board. I’ve added a couple of best bets that look great on paper.
Read about those bets below and consider tailing. Here are my top two MLB bets for today’s slate of games.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
The Tampa Bay Rays will give Adrian Houser another start. The righty was fantastic for the White Sox and was traded at the deadline to the Rays. Since joining the Rays, he’s been going through a tough time. Ultimately, Houser has allowed a .430 wOBA to his last 77 batters and has struck out just 14.3% of those batters. He’s also allowed more than 30% of line drives.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Seattle lineup that has hit a .215 ISO and wOBA of .334 against righties over the last month. There are six batters in the projected lineup that have hit an ISO of at least .200 against righties over the previous month.
On the other hand, it’ll be Bryan Woo for the Mariners. Woo has struck out 27% of batters over the last 30 days and has allowed just 4% of walks. He’s also limited his previous 100 batters to a .309 wOBA. In addition, he’ll take on a Rays lineup that hasn’t looked very good against righties. The projected lineup has collectively hit a .124 ISO and wOBA of .313 against righties.
Therefore, I wouldn’t just back the Mariners on the Moneyline. Instead, I’d take it a bit farther and back the Mariners on the run line.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+114)
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are set to pitch Brandon Pfaadt. He’s struggled badly against lefties over the last month. However, he’s limited his last 58 righties to a .125 ISO and wOBA of .301.
The good news for Pfaadt is that he’ll likely face a Rockies projected lineup that has seven righties in it. He’ll just have to escape Mickey Moniak and Adael Amador. Outside of those two, he’s going to face only right-handed batters.
Meanwhile, Tanner Gordon will take the hill for the Rockies. Gordon has allowed a .268 ISO and wOBA of .487 to his last 61 batters. Those 61 batters have hit 28% of line drives and only 34% of ground balls. They’ve also struck out fewer than 10% of the time.
While the Diamondbacks got rid of some of their best hitters at the deadline, the lineup still has six batters who have hit an ISO of at least .152 against righties over the last month. The bottom portion of the lineup has also struck out a lot, but that likely won’t be the case against Gordon.
Gordon has allowed a .438 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over the last month and has given up a 10% barrel rate during that time. He’s also issued just 6.4% of swinging strikes and has given up 54% of hard contact.
Let’s take the Diamondbacks on the run line in this one.
Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-120)