MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (8/11)
Although it’s Sunday, there are only 13 games on the MLB slate. Still, there’s plenty of value on the board!
I’ve added two of my favorite bets for today’s slate. Tail along if you agree with the analysis!
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks
Here are our top MLB picks for Sunday’s slate of baseball action.
MLB odds courtesy of DraftKings FanDuel Sportsbook| All wagers are for 1 unit
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
The Atlanta Braves have been inconsistent offensively all year. However, this protected lineup has hit a .214 ISO and wOBA of .470 against lefties over the last month. Additionally. the Braves have walked nearly 14% of the time against lefties.
Today, they’ll take on Kyle Freeland of the Rockies in Coors Field. Freeland is a lefty who has allowed a .247 ISO and wOBA of .349 to his last 90 batters. He’s also watched his last 80 righties hit a 57.4% hard contact rate with only 31.5% of ground balls induced.
Atlanta should have its way against Freeland in today’s ball game.
Meanwhile, the Braves will pitch Spencer Schwellenbach. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has held his last 100 batters to a .243 wOBA. In addition, he’s limited line drives to 19.4% in the previous 30 days and has earned 32% of strikeouts with only 1% of walks.
The Rockies have legitimate power against righties. However, the projected lineup has also struck out 26.3% of the time over the last 30 days against righties. Where will the power be when the Rockies struggle to make contact and get guys on base?
Let’s ride the Braves at -1.5 for today’s matchup.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+106-115)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Phillies are in line to throw Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez isn’t a high strikeout thrower. But the lefty has still held his last 103 batters to a .113 ISO with 56.5% of ground balls.
Sanchez will face a Diamondbacks projected lineup that has combined for just a .141 ISO and wOBA of .293 over the last 30 days. Arizona’s lineup won’t strike out much, either. But they’ve hit over 51% of ground balls against lefties in the previous month. Sanchez will induce a lot of ground balls that could help him get out of innings.
On the flip side, Merrill Kelly will get the ball. He hasn’t pitched since April 15, when he began the season with a 2-0 record and a 2.19 ERA.
Kelly was dominant in the postseason last year and looked just as good in his first four starts of this year’s season. He didn’t allow more than two runs in any of his first four games this year.
Additionally, he’ll face a Phillies lineup that has collectively hit a .168 ISO and wOBA of .302 with just 6.8% of walks earned against righties. That’s nothing to write home about.
I’ll back the Under 9 (-112) in this matchup.
Pick: Under 9 (-112-104)