MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/7)
While the NFL kicks off its first week of the season, don’t forget about Major League Baseball. We’ve been cashing all summer and have way more data to back our wagers.
Here are my top two MLB picks & predictions for today’s slate.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels are set to pitch Mitch Farris. He’s only faced 19 batters this season. However, the lefty has allowed a .222 ISO and wOBA of .354 to his first 11 righties this season. He’s also walked 18.2% of righties and has struck out only 9.1% of righties.
Tonight, he’ll battle an Athletics lineup that will likely have seven righties in it. Those righties have combined to hit a .252 ISO and wOBA of .365 with more than 10% of walks against lefties over the last month.
On the other hand, Luis Severino will get the ball for the Athletics. The veteran righty has held 614 batters to a .128 ISO this season. He also looked great in his return to the hill after he struck out 25% of the 16 batters he faced last time out.
Severino will compete against an Angels lineup that has struck out nearly 29% of the time over the last 30 days. Severino’s strikeout rate increased in his return and will likely stay high against the Angels.
Let’s back the Athletics on the Moneyline.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline (-120)
Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
It’ll be Brayan Bello on the mound for the Red Sox today. Bello has only earned 19.5% of strikeouts over the last month. However, he’s still allowed just a .115 ISO and wOBA of .272 against his previous 123 batters faced. Bello has kept walks down and has issued over 47% of ground balls, with only 19.1% of line drives.
Bello has been solid analytically and will face a Diamondbacks lineup that has walked only 6.6% of the time against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. Arizona also has five players with an ISO of no better than .114 against righties over the last month.
Conversely, Ryne Nelson will pitch for the Diamondbacks. The right-hander has allowed a .286 ISO and wOBA of .368 to his last 73 righties. He’s also induced just 33% of ground balls over the last month.
Boston’s projected lineup has collectively hit a .171 ISO and wOBA of .335. These are slightly above-average numbers. Overall, the lineup has way more potential against Nelson, who has allowed a .205 ISO to his last 12 batters.
Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, Trevor Story, Nathaniel Lowe and Carlos Narvaez have all hit right-handers with a high ISO and high wOBA. In addition, the starting lineup has drilled nearly 25% of fly balls and 26.3% of line drives. There will likely be many hard line drives hit by the Red Sox today.
Give me Boston on the Moneyline.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-108)