MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/4)
Let's dive into our top MLB picks for the Fourth of July holiday. There is a good slate of games to choose from, with a few games during the day, so let's look at our top MLB picks to play.
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Thursday's Best MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds (+150) at New York Yankees (-180) | O/U 9 (-105/-115)
The Yankees were the first team to have 50 wins, but that was a long ago. Back on June 14, to be exact. The team has been in disarray since going 4-12 in that span. They also haven't won a series either, going 0-4-1 in that time. It was a tough stretch going against Baltimore, Atlanta and a Mets team playing well, but they just split a series against last-place Toronto and will try to avoid a sweep against Cincinnati. Marcus Stroman has been one of the more dependable pitchers during this horrible run; he accounted for two of their last four wins but has a 4.91 ERA in those games.
While the Reds have won the last two games, they haven't necessarily dominated this series. Both games were won by one run as New York scored late to make it close. Consistency has been their problem all year, and they've had extended winning and losing streaks. This time, it was neither. Since June 17, they hadn't lost more than two straight, but the last two games were the first time they won back-to-back. It's a revenge game for Frankie Montas, who spent 1.5 seasons in the Bronx, but injuries only allowed him nine starts. They were forgettable as he had a 6.15 ERA.
Montas is on his best stretch with back-to-back quality starts for the first time all season, which means he's due for a regression. Stroman should help the Yankees pull off a much-needed win.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+114)
Baltimore Orioles (-148) at Seattle Mariners (+124) | O/U 7 (-110/-110)
The Yankees’ struggles have allowed the Orioles to jump over them and own the lead in the American League East. They've had a nice run against American League West teams; they took three of four against the Rangers and look to pull the broom out in Seattle today. Baltimore will be a tough opponent in the playoffs, especially now that this young squad has some experience in October. It's tough to beat a power-hitting and power-pitching team, as they have the top slugging percentage and are third in ERA. Corbin Burnes should earn his fourth-straight All-Star appearance as he's fourth with a 2.28 ERA and has quality starts in 11 of his 12 outings.
The Mariners are playing bad baseball right now. On June 19, they had a healthy nine-game lead in the American League West. It has dwindled to two. This hasn't been a good offense this year. They are last on average, hitting just .185, slugging (.301) and strikeout rate (30.5%). Bryce Miller had a great start to the season with a 2.61 ERA in his first seven starts, but he's dipped over his last 10 starts with a 4.82 ERA. It also doesn't help that he hasn't gotten much run support this year.
The Orioles haven't had big offensive performances to win the first two games. With Burnes looking great, they won't need a lot of firepower to get a win.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-148)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: