Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/21)
Oddsmakers predict many “coin-flip” type of games for today’s loaded 15-game Major League Baseball slate has six games where the favorites have -130 moneyline odds or shorter. That makes sense considering the parity among MLB teams of late, as 18 of the 30 teams are either 4-6, 5-5, or 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Involved in today’s trio of MLB picks are two moneyline underdogs at +140 odds.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, August 21.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-166) @ Miami Marlins (+140) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
Normally the Miami Marlins are an auto-fade when they oppose a left-handed starting pitcher, as they are an MLB-worst 9-33 against southpaws. However, few lefties have struggled as much as Jordan Montgomery has this year, as Montgomery is on pace for his worst ERA (6.25), FIP (4.41), WHIP (1.657) and K/9 rate (6.3) in a full season in his career. Arizona is just 3-3 in Montgomery’s last six starts, and the Diamondbacks offense took a real blow recently when MVP candidate Ketel Marte landed on the IL, as his .930 OPS and 6.0 WAR are nearly impossible to replace.
Miami has been much more consistent in the second half of the season, and while its record is just 13-17, that .433 winning percentage trumps its .368 winning percentage on the season. Arizona has won the first two games of this series by a combined 12-7, but Miami avoids the sweep for the 12th consecutive series dating back to mid-July.
MLB Pick: Marlins ML (+140)
Cleveland Guardians (+140) @ New York Yankees (-166) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
The Guardians do not have as strong a pitcher on the mound as they were scheduled to, as Alex Cobb was supposed to make tonight's start but instead landed on the IL with a broken nail. However, Cleveland may still benefit from sending Joey Cantillo to the mound given New York's struggles against southpaws.
The Yankees are 13-20 against left-handed starting pitchers and are 27 games over .500 (60-33) against righties. Plus, the Yankees are 2-5 in Nestor Cortes' last seven starts, and have lost four of his last five home starts with a -23 run differential in that span.
Cortes struggled mightily in July, pitching to a 6.93 ERA and recording 15-plus outs in just two of his five starts. I am not ready to pronounce his struggles as over after shutting out the lowly Chicago White Sox for seven innings in his previous start.
In his last six starts against teams over .500, Cortes is 1-4 with a 6.25 ERA. He has also allowed a 69:29 fly ball to ground ball ratio, which does not play well against a Guardians lineup that has an 11.5% HR/FB rate.
Lastly, New York’s bullpen is completely taxed after using all nine relievers in last night’s 12-inning marathon that lasted four-plus hours. The Yankees did not use nine pitchers in a game since August 6, 2021 against the Seattle Mariners, and given that Cleveland has had the much better bullpen with more depth all season, I expect it to use that to its advantage tonight.
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+140)
Seattle Mariners (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-166) | O/U 8 (-102/-118)
While the Los Angeles Dodgers arguably have the most loaded lineup when fully healthy (and they are close to it with Mookie Betts back from the IL), Seattle Mariners righty Logan Gilbert still managed to go under the radar pitching to a 2.96 ERA and .195 OBA this season.
Gilbert ranks in the 81st percentile or better in xERA, whiff percentage, and walk rate this season, and his hard-hit rate is down to 38.8% after a previous career-low of 44.6% last year. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty makes his second home start with the Dodgers after striking out 10 in his home debut. While he did allow nine hits and four runs in that start, I do not expect him to struggle against a Mariners lineup that ranks 28th in BABIP and 18th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of July.
The Dodgers have cashed their team total Under in 31 of their last 53 home games (+7.30 units/12% ROI), and since I am not worried about Seattle’s underperforming offense, that trend gives me more confidence to back the full-game Under in this contest.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-118)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.