Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/28)
Nothing sums up the crazy AL East race between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles than by what happened yesterday. The Yankees lost a game in the standings even though they figured to have the huge starting pitching advantage in their game against the Washington Nationals (Gerrit Cole vs. Patrick Corbin), while Baltimore beat the Los Angeles Dodgers with Cole Irvin on the mound, a pitcher who has a negative WAR rating and was sent to the minors earlier this season.
With the Yankees owning a slim one-game lead heading into today, how does this AL East race factor into today’s MLB Best Bets?
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, August 28.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago Cubs (+134) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-158) | O/U 8 (-114/-106)
It may seem blasphemous to back the Over in a game which Paul Skenes is starting, as his starts have seen seven or fewer runs scored in eight of his past 13 outings, with eight runs scored three times in that span. However, Skenes has thrown 93 or fewer pitches in three consecutive starts, and was removed after 87 pitches in his last start even though he was cruising through six scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds. It is fair to wonder how much the Pirates coaching staff will push their face of the franchise down the stretch, especially with the team’s playoff hopes diminishing by the day (Pittsburgh starts the day 10 games out of a playoff spot).
Even if Skenes were to have a vintage performance, the Pirates could go over this projected total by themselves against the struggling Kyle Hendricks. I am not buying Hendricks’ 3.45 ERA through three August starts, but he has just two strikeouts in his last two starts combined. That is concerning when facing a Pirates offense that has come alive this month, ranking third in BABIP (.318). Pittsburgh still ranks 22nd in wOBA in August in large part because of a strikeout rate that ranks third-worst in the NL (26.2%), but that should not come into play much against a starter who pitches to contact as much as Hendricks does.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-114)
Kansas City Royals (+120) @ Cleveland Guardians (-142) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
Kansas City's Michael Wacha was rolling entering his last start, lowering his ERA to 3.33 after four consecutive quality starts, the latest of which at the time was his most impressive (six scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds). His changeup had become a devastating weapon, using it to generate a 60% chase rate and 46.2% whiff rate against Cincinnati. It is a big reason why he had the second-lowest ERA (2.42) of any starting pitcher since May 9, and also struck out 21.5% of batters in that span while pitching to a 3.87 FIP and 4.23 SIERA.
What did Wacha do as a follow-up to those impressive feats? He won his third consecutive start, leading the team to a 7-4 victory over the division-leading Phillies, allowing just two runs over six innings. Wacha’s only start this year against the Cleveland Guardians was a 2-1 victory (he earned a no-decision) after allowing one run in 5 1/3 innings. Since then, the Royals are 8-1 in his nine starts, and he should be able to outduel Tanner Bibee, who has flirted with trouble with a 21:11 fly ball-to-ground ball ratio in two starts against the Royals this year.
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+120)
Baltimore Orioles (-106) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) | O/U 8.5 (-120/-102)
The following are the Baltimore Orioles’ hit totals over the last 10 games: 7, 2, 7, 8, 3, 3, 11, 6, 3, 5. Baltimore has salvaged a 5-5 record in that span in large part because of late-inning home run heroics, as the Orioles remain heavily reliant on home runs (second-most in the majors, 201).
Baltimore cannot rely on home runs for offense in the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, even if L.A.’s pitching staff allows the seventh-highest HR/FB rate (12.4%). In addition, the Dodgers have relatively short moneyline odds given that Orioles ace Corbin Burnes is toeing the rubber, but Burnes has pitched to an 8.71 ERA in four August starts. That includes the righty allowing a career-high in runs (eight) and hits (10) in an August 16 loss to the Boston Red Sox, while his 22 runs allowed over his previous four starts are the most in any four-game span in his career.
Los Angeles has righted the ship with six wins in its last eight games, and is the rightful favorites in this clash of two of MLB’s best teams.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.