MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (10/3)
Let’s get in on some positive-EV MLB picks for today’s four Divisional Series postseason matchups. With a full four-game slate and plenty of intriguing matchups, I used the market-based EV page, which shows the top +EV bets. Here are my favorite three for Saturday, October 3rd.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
David Fry Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -140
- Market EV: +7%
In the last 30 days, David Fry has a .129 ISO and a wOBA of .301 against his last 35 lefties. Additionally, he’s added a .250 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite just a 4% barrel rate. Fry has hit just 16% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days.
Today, Fry will battle Hagen Smith of the White Sox, who has held his last 48 righties to a .047 ISO and a wOBA of .179, with 50% grounders and just 12.5% fly balls.
You can bet on Fry to go under 0.5 total bases at -120 at BetMGM, while the fair value is -140. That’s a 7% market expected value. It’s also one of the best plays on the board.
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (+134 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: +123
- Market EV: +5%
Junior Caminero has a .273 ISO and a wOBA of .325 against his last 69 righties. He’s a righty himself, who has hit a team-best 13.7% barrel rate against righties in the last 30 days. Caminero has also slugged a team-best 68.6% hard-hit rate against righties over the last month.
Caminero will take on Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, who has allowed a .325 wOBA to his last 40 righties. He’s also earned just 20% of strikeouts and a 21.9% barrel rate to righties in the last month.
Cole has escaped damage despite these numbers, but don’t expect him to keep escaping damage if he allows these types of analytics to righties moving forward.
We can bet on Caminero to go over 1.5 total bases at +134; the fair value is +123. Let’s add another 5% positive-EV play to our portfolio.
Parker Messick Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (+144 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +133
- Market EV: +5%
Parker Messick could strike out easily today. The Cleveland left-hander has earned 29.1% of strikeouts in the last month, adding 28.6% against lefties and 29.3% against righties.
Today, Messick will face a White Sox lineup that has struck out 24% of the time. Six White Sox batters have struck out at least 24.1% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Messick has held his last 110 batters to 44.3% of ground balls and 24.3% of fly balls. He’s also allowed just 5.5% of walks. If he can attack hitters and throw strikes, adding 18 outs seems doable.
At +144, it’s a solid bet. The fair value is +133, giving this play a 5% market EV.