MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (6/27)
With a full slate of games in the MLB, there’s plenty of value MLB picks to consider using our Market-based EV page. I’ve added three bets below you’ll want to check out, but feel free to add even more to your portfolio using the tool.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Alan Rangel Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+115 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +104
- Market EV: +5%
Alan Rangel will get the start for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has faced just 33 batters this season. Those 33 batters have hit just a .156 ISO and a wOBA of .293. He’s also struck out 27.3% of batters faced this season.
Meanwhile, Rangel is set to face a Mets team that just fired its manager and scored only one run in another demoralizing loss last night at home. The Mets have a stacked lineup, but they’ve struggled as a whole.
Rangel to go under 4.5 hits is +115 at BetMGM, while the fair value is +104. That’s a strong 5% play to consider today in the MLB.
Junior Caminero Under 0.5 RBI (-130 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: -147
- Market EV: +5%
Junior Caminero has been red-hot against righties over the last 30 days. However, he’s set to take on Jose Cabrera of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who has limited his first 12 righties faced to a .000 ISO and a wOBA of .207.
Caberera doesn’t have a strong sample size. But so far, he’s looked terrific against righties. Caminero to go under 0.5 RBI tonight is listed at -130 on Hard Rock Bet. Ultimately, the fair market value for this bet is -147, which gives it a 5% advantage.
Let’s fade Caminero in tonight’s matchup.
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +101
- Market EV: +5%
Bobby Witt Jr. is set to take on Davis Martin of the Chicago White Sox today. Martin had a strong start to the season and has continued to perform well recently.
However, analytically, his production has declined against righties, allowing a .320 wOBA to his last 41 righties. Martin has also allowed a .333 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to righties over the last month, while adding just 22% of strikeouts against righties.
Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. has a .038 ISO and a wOBA of .304 against his last 63 righties, but he should start to see better results soon. The strikeouts are down, and his groundball rate is also down. Witt has also added nearly 27% of fly balls and still has a .317 BABIP.
Witt should put the ball in play against Martin. That should help him add at least two total bases. You can find the over on his total bases at +110 on Hard Rock Bet. The fair value is +101. It’s another strong positive-expected-value bet to consider today.