MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (7/4)
Before you go out to your Fourth of July BBQ, make sure you make some quality MLB picks using the Market-based EV page. There’s so much value on the board, so let’s get after it.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Doubles (+450 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +357
- Market EV: +20%
Brandon Lowe has shown off a ton of power against right-handed pitching over the last month. He has a .230 ISO and a wOBA of .307, with 32.7% fly balls, 28.8% line drives and 53.8% hard contact. Those stats could help him hit a double.
Lowe is facing Zack Littell of the Nationals, who has allowed a .333 ISO and a .416 wOBA to his last 50 lefties.
Meanwhile, you can bet on Lowe to add at least one double at +450 odds at Hard Rock Bet. The fair value is +357, giving this a 20% market EV. That’s sensational. Lowe has the analytical numbers to back up earning a double tonight.
Josh Lowe Over 0.5 RBI (+375 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +300
- Market EV: +19%
Josh Lowe has been surprisingly good against right-handed pitching lately. He has a .238 ISO and a wOBA of .438 against his last 22 righties.
Lowe is set to face Sonny Gray, who has been incredible lately. Still, Gray has allowed a .179 ISO to his last 85 lefties, while also allowing 57.4% of hard contact. Gray has also given up 33.3% of fly balls to lefties.
Lowe will likely bat eighth for the Angels today. There are plenty of bats in front of him who can get on base and help Lowe drive in a run.
Right now, you can bet on Lowe to go over 0.5 RBI at +375 on Hard Rock Bet. The fair value is +300. That’s a massive 19% play. Go get it.
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+310 at SugarHouse Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +233
- Market EV: +23%
Tyler Stephenson has socked a .191 ISO and a wOBA of .404 against his last 52 righties. Yet, for him to get at least two total bases, his odds are +310 at SugarHouse Sportsbook. Stephenson is set to face Brandon Young of the Orioles, who has been dominant against righties. Still, Stephenson could face other pitchers in this game down the line.
Stephenson is worth a flier bet, especially knowing his analytics against righties over the last month. Let’s give him a try at +310 to add at least two total bases.