MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (8/1)
The MLB season is flying. We’re already in August, and the MLB trade deadline is approaching fast. That said, let’s keep firing on some high-quality MLB picks using the Market-based EV page. Here are some of the best bets you’ll find for Saturday, August 1st.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Colt Keith Over 0.5 Runs (+140 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +122
- Market EV: +8%
Colt Keith has a .314 ISO and a wOBA of .448 against his last 58 righties. Today, he’ll take on Jack Perkins of the Athletics, who has done well against lefties overall. However, Perkins has still allowed 36.5% of fly balls and 42.3% hard contact. Keith should be able to take advantage and get on base for his teammates to drive him in.
At Hard Rock Bet, you can bet on Keith to add a run at +140, while the fair value is +122. That’s an 8% positive expected value play. You’ll absolutely want to consider this one.
Jake Bauers Under 0.5 Total Bases (+135 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +118
- Market EV: +8%
Jake Bauers has a .125 ISO against righties over the last month. Even worse, he’s struck out close to 33% of the time against righties during that stretch. It’ll be hard for him to get on base going up against Soriano, who has allowed a .299 wOBA to lefties this season. Soriano has held lefties to a .000 ISO and a wOBA of .195 with close to 58% of ground balls over the last 30 days.
Bauers is +135 to go under 0.5 total bases, while the fair value is +118. We’ll gladly take it after looking at the analytics. It’s an 8% market EV play.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 Hits (+160 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +144
- Market EV: +7%
It’s no secret that Christian Encarnacion-Strand has performed well against lefties over the last couple of weeks. However, he’s set to face Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies, who might be one of the best lefties in the Majors.
Sanchez has limited righties to a .137 ISO and 55.3% of ground balls throughout the season. He’s also added 24% of strikeouts and has earned over 29% of whiffs. I wouldn’t count on Encarnacion-Strand to get a hit tonight.
At +160, you can bet on him to go under 0.5 hits, which is a 7% positive expected value play. The fair value is +144.