MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (8/15)
If you’re looking for the best bets on the MLB slate today, you’re going to want to check out the Market-based EV page. It shows all the best positive-expected-value bets on the board. Just be quick, because the great odds won’t last forever. Here are three MLB picks I’m targeting today.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Anthony Kay Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+180 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: +151
- Market EV: +11%
Anthony Kay has only walked 6.8% of batters over the last month. That’s down from 8.3% throughout the season.
Additionally, Kay will battle a projected Tigers lineup that only has three players walking more than 8% of the time against lefties over the last month. Therefore, getting Kay at +180 seems like a terrific bargain. The fair value for this bet is +151 - an 11% market expected value.
Meanwhile, Kay is also facing a Tigers lineup that has just a .126 ISO and a wOBA of .299 against lefties over the last month. Kay could have a really solid start today.
Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 Total Bases (+150 at Kalshi)
- Fair Value: +128
- Market EV: +10%
In the last 30 days, Yordan Alvarez has slugged a .274 ISO and a wOBA of .539 against his last 79 righties. The left-handed slugger has become one of the best hitters in the league again.
Alvarez is set to take on Seattle starter Emerson Hancock, who has already allowed a .164 ISO and a wOBA of .401 against his last 61 lefties. Those lefties have a .405 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Hancock over the last 30 days.
Ultimately, Alvarez is +150 to add at least three total bases in tonight’s game. Still, the market value insists Alvarez should be closer to +128. That’s a 10% market expected value. Make this bet while you can.
Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +104
- Market EV: +8%
Tyler Tolbert is very good at making contact. But he’s also good at earning walks against lefties, which wouldn’t count for this bet unless he scored. That said, we know how poor the Royals have been offensively this season.
Tolbert is set to face Reid Detmers of the Angels, who has struck out 34.2% of his last 73 righties. He’s also limited righties to a .231 BABIP and has allowed just 21.4% of line drives with a .259 wOBA to righties.
You can bet on Tolbert to go under 0.5 combined hits + runs + RBIs at +120. The fair value is +104. That’s another massive play I’ll be adding to my portfolio.