MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (8/22)
There’s plenty of value on the Market-based EV page, especially with today’s 15-game MLB slate. You’ll find the most valuable bets around on this page. Just make sure you’re quick to lock in bets before lines change!
That said, I’ve got three bets I’m firing on today. Check it out below!
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 Total Bases (+124 at Underdog)
- Fair Value: +107
- Market EV: +8%
Hector Rodriguez will likely bat towards the bottom of tonight’s lineup for the Cincinnati Reds. The left-handed outfielder has struggled against righties over the last month, too. In fact, he’s hit a .031 ISO and a wOBA of .171 with 25.7% of strikeouts against righties over the last month.
Tonight, he’ll face Michael Soroka, a righty, who has held lefties to a .000 ISO and a wOBA of .237 over the last 30 days.
Rodriguez to go Under 0.5 total bases is currently at +124. Soroka looks much better on paper against Rodriguez. There’s an 8% positive expected value on this prop, so you’ll really want to consider this bet.
Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +110
- Market EV: +7%
Jacob Lopez has earned 27.8% of strikeouts over the last month. He’s been excellent in many areas in that time frame. However, he’s facing an Astros projected lineup that has only struck out 14.9% of the time against lefties over the last month. He’ll have just two batters who have struck out more than 20% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.
It’s likely a good idea to fade Lopez and his strikeouts.
That said, you can find Lopez to record under 4.5 strikeouts at +125 via NoVig. The fair value is +110, giving this wager a 7% positive expected value. This is another best bet on the board.
Jared Jones Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-120 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: -132
- Market EV: +4%
Jared Jones has struggled over the last month. But so have the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers’ projected lineup has hit a .312 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days. In the lineup, six batters have hit a .298 wOBA or worse against righties in the last 30 days.
This season, Jones has averaged about 75 pitches per game. But in the last 30 days, that number has increased to nearly 80 pitches per game. He’s improving and still has a low walk rate. If he attacks the LA lineup, he should find success.
Therefore, Jones to earn at least 15 outs at -120 via NoVig is a stellar play. The fair value is currently at -132, making this a 4% market EV. That’s some solid value!