MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (8/29)
With 17 games on today’s MLB slate, there’s plenty of opportunity when using the Market-based EV page. You can filter through all of the positive expected value options and gain a bunch of valuable bets for today’s MLB action.
I’ve got my top three bets and shared them below.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
George Lombard Over 0.5 Hits (-115 at Prophet X)
- Fair Value: -135
- Market EV: +8%
George Lombard hasn’t looked great in the field recently. But he’s still hit a .200 ISO and a wOBA of .447 against his first 11 lefties faced. The right-hander has a high strikeout rate, but he’ll face Jake Bennett of the Boston Red Sox, who has only earned 18.2% of strikeouts over the last month against righties.
Bennett has even allowed a .159 ISO and a wOBA of .316 to his last 66 righties.
Lombard has potential to land at least one hit at -115. The fair value is -135, making this play one of the best on the betting board. Let’s ride!
Ryan Johnson Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+150 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +133
- Market EV: +7%
Ryan Johnson has been far from excellent this season. That said, he’s held his last 62 lefties to a .273 wOBA. If he can shut down the Phillies lefties, he likely won’t have many issues in the Phillies’ lineup. After all, Philadelphia’s righties have combined to hit a .291 wOBA against righties in the last month.
Additionally, Johnson has increased his pitch count over ten pitches in the last month. He’s also allowed a BABIP of just .188 to his last 106 batters faced overall.
Adding Johnson to earn at least 16 outs at +150 is enticing. It’s a 7% positive expected value play as of right now!
Bailey Ober Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+136 at Prophet X)
- Fair Value: +121
- Market EV: +7%
Bailey Ober has earned just 12.2% of strikeouts over the last month. He’s also added just 16.2% of strikeouts this season. However, Ober is still throwing a ton of strikes and will face three batters in the Chicago White Sox lineup who have struck out over 30% of the time against righties in the last month.
Ober has the potential to land four strikeouts in this game, as long as he continues to throw strikes.
The true value for this play is +121, but Prophet X is carrying +136. This is another 7% positive expected value play. Grab it while you can!