MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (9/12)
I’m eyeing a lot of MLB bets thanks to our market-based EV page. This page has all of the most valuable bets out there in one place. It’s a useful tool that should help any bettor build their bankroll. Follow along with my favorite three MLB picks below.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Michael King Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+150 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +130
- Market EV: +8%
Michael King has held his last 127 batters to a .115 ISO and a wOBA of .289. The strikeouts are particularly high, but he’s added 48.3% of ground balls and has given up just 18% of line drives over the last month.
Today, King takes on a Giants team that has combined to hit a .150 ISO and a wOBA of .335 with 21.1% of strikeouts against righties in the last 30 days. Only two Giants batters have an ISO above .135 against righties in the last month.
King should cruise past everyone except Drew Gilbert and Rafael Devers. Meanwhile, you can bet on King to go over 18.5 outs recorded at +150 at Fanatics Sportsbook when the true fair value is +130. This is one of the biggest market EV bets available right now.
Kyle Stowers Under o.5 Total Bases (+132 at Underdog)
- Fair Value: +114
- Market EV: +8%
While Kyle Stowers has a .200 ISO and a wOBA of .327 against righties in the last month, he’s also recorded 45.2% of strikeouts against righties. That’s not ideal at all. Plus, he’s facing Tyler Glasnow, who has struck out 29.1% of lefties this season, while holding lefties to a .024 ISO and a wOBA of .207 over the last month.
When Stowers makes contact against righties, good things happen. But that’s going to be a hard battle to overcome, especially against Glasnow.
Stowers to go under 0.5 total bases is +132 at Underdog, but the fair value is +114. This is another massive play to consider for tonight’s MLB action.
Tyler Glasnow Under 1.5 Walks (+138 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +121
- Market EV: +8%
Not only has Tyler Glasnow added 29.6% more strikeouts in the last month, but he has also added just 5.6% more walks over the last 30 days. Glasnow is your typical veteran pitcher who has been locked in. He’s allowed just 7.3% of walks this season. That number has decreased over the last 30 days.
That said, we can bet on Glasnow to go under 1.5 walks at +138 at Novig; the fair value is +121. This is another 8% play to think about when placing your MLB bets today.