MLB Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Saturday (9/5)
College football’s Week 1 starts today. However, don’t forget about the money that can be made betting on baseball. We’ve done very well with Market-based EV bets this season. Here are three more MLB picks to consider for today’s action below.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Carlos Rodon Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+150 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +129
- Market EV: +9%
Carlos Rodon has allowed a .178 ISO to his last 53 batters, while allowing over 52% of hard contact. He’s earned just 20.8% of strikeouts during that stretch, while allowing an 11.1% barrel rate. Ultimately, Rodon has escaped damage so far. But if those results continue, the damage will come.
The Padres’ projected lineup has hit a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .324 over the last month against lefties. There are some very hot batters in the lineup facing Rodon. Therefore, let’s side with Rodon to go under 14.5 outs recorded at +150 at Novig. Its fair value is +129, giving this play a market EV of 9%.
Martin Perez Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+122 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +108
- Market EV: +7%
Martin Perez has had a higher walk rate over the last month. However, he’s limited walks to 3.7% against lefties over the last 30 days and will still likely face four lefties in the Philadelphia lineup. That should help keep Perez’s walks down.
The Phillies have four batters with walk rates below 7.5% against lefties, too. You can bet on Perez to go under 1.5 walks allowed at +122 on Novig. The fair value is +108. This play has a 7% positive expected value, and you’ll certainly want to consider it for today’s slate.
Zac Thornton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+106 at Novig)
- Fair Value: -105
- Market EV: +5%
Zac Thornton isn’t known for his strikeouts. He’s added just 18.4% this season and has earned 18.9% of strikeouts over the last month. That said, he’s facing a Giants squad that has combined to hit a .269 wOBA against lefties in the last month. Thornton could seriously give the Mets six strong innings and a quality start.
In addition, the Giants are aggressive against lefties, rarely earning walks. That could keep Thornton’s pitch count down and allow him to face more batters. Plus, the Giants have four batters who have struck out at least 24.5% of the time against lefties in the last month.
With a 5% positive expected value, you’ll want to take a look at Thornton to go over 4.5 strikeouts at +106 on Novig.