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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/1)

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Many noteworthy things happened on Opening Day and may propel certain players to huge seasons. Orioles phenom Adley Rutschman became the first catcher with five hits on Opening Day since 1900, per B/R Walk-off. Meanwhile, Giants and Yankees starters Logan Webb and Gerrit Cole each set franchise records for strikeouts on Opening Day with 12. Unfortunately, players like Shohei Ohtani were on the wrong side of history, as Sarah Langs pointed out on Twitter.

 

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Saturday. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

YTD: 4-2 (+3.12 units)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Brewers

Many fantasy baseball pundits pegged Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner as a top-three player at the position, given the promise he showed last year. Cubs manager David Ross is buying into that hype and placing him at the top of the lineup to utilize his speed, which is much different from last year, where Hoerner spent just nine percent of his plate appearances in the top third of the batting order. Hoerner is looking to add more pop as he is coming off a year where he set career highs in launch angle and maximum exit velocity, but for the sake of this wager, we are looking for him to maximize his plate appearances and scratch out a run when he gets on base.

Many will argue that Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff is not the pitcher to fade, given that Hoerner is just 1-for-13 with three strikeouts in his career against him. However, Woodruff also allowed career-highs last season in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage (37.5%), and his .282 wOBA was his worst in the previous four seasons. And while Woodruff ranked in the 89th percentile in K% last year, that is mitigated by Hoerner’s above-average 11% strikeout rate from a season ago. Hoerner’s odds to produce at least one base hit are steep at -260, so him scoring a run when he does get on base at +140 odds is much better value.

Bet: Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 runs scored (+140 at DraftKings) 

Jack Flaherty to record a win vs. the Blue Jays

St. Louis was one of four National League teams to win 53+ games at home last year, so any time we can get creative with props that support them as home underdogs, we are jumping at the opportunity.

Flaherty is a bit of an unknown for St. Louis entering his first start, given that he has made nine or fewer starts in two of the previous three seasons. However, he typically begins seasons strong, as his career .778 winning percentage in March/April is his second-highest of any month. In addition, he is comfortable at Busch Stadium, as he has posted a 2.84 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 49 career home appearances (46 starts).

Toronto is a worthy favorite after winning 92 games last year and going nine games over .500 (45-36) on the road. However, while Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is coming off a career-best 1.4 BB/9 rate, he will be challenged by a Cardinals lineup that ranked fifth in wOBA last season. In addition, three of St. Louis’ biggest bats (Nolan Arenado, Wilson Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt) have combined for four home runs in 28 at-bats off Gausman, while just four current Blue Jays have ever faced Flaherty. That should give Flaherty a distinct advantage in the early innings, and we expect the St. Louis bullpen to perform much better than the five runs it allowed in 5 2/3 innings on Opening Day.

The Cardinals were a profitable 13-12 as home underdogs last season, so we are getting great odds for Flaherty to continue that trend and earn a win.

Bet: Jack Flaherty (+270 at DraftKings)

Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases vs. Diamondbacks

Thirteen players on today’s MLB slate have 10+ at-bats against the pitchers they face while posting an OPS of .850 or better. Yet only one has a higher OPS than Mookie Betts’ career 1.145 OPS against Madison Bumgarner. 

Bumgarner was durable last season, making 30 starts for the second time since 2017. However, that also coincided with his worst single-season WAR (-0.7), largely because his 43.2% hard-hit percentage allowed was the second-worst of his career, and his 30.3% fly-ball rate was the highest. 

Bumgarner ranked in the 11th percentile in barrel rate and the 13th percentile in hard-hit contact allowed last year. However, his numbers suggest further regression is expected, as his 4.88 ERA bested his 5.53 xERA. 

Betts crushed left-handed pitching last year, as he tied for fourth with Aaron Judge with a 174 wRC+ against southpaws (min. 100 plate appearances). Betts got off to a slow start with an 0-for-4 performance on Opening Day, but he homered yesterday, and we expect him to continue that positive momentum.

Bet: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at DraftKings)


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.