MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (6/17)
Eleven of today’s 15 Major League Baseball games are played in the afternoon, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to cash in early. In this column, we identified our two best pitcher props and a batter prop to make up our trio of best bets.
Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wade Miley to throw a quality start vs. Pirates (-240 via Caesars)
Milwaukee Brewers lefty Wade Miley has issued more walks (12) than strikeouts recorded (nine) in 77 combined at-bats against current Pittsburgh Pirates hitters. But Miley has minimized the damage for the most part with a .286/.382/.376 slash line allowed. And he has dominated Pittsburgh’s two most feared hitters, Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds, as the two are 6-for-36 (.167) against Miley with just two combined extra-base hits. That limits the offensive potential for a Pirates offense that ranks in the top 12 in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against left-handed pitching this year.
The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee between these teams and has cashed in each of Pittsburgh’s last five Saturday games. We are following those trends and expect a gem from Miley against a Pirates team that has topped three runs just twice over the previous six games.
DraftKings does not yet have odds posted for Miley’s earned runs, so in the meantime we are backing his odds to throw a quality start at Caesars, which can be found under the “Quality Pitching?” category.
Lourdes Gurriel Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Guardians (+175)
Cleveland Guardians righty Shane Bieber may still be viewed as an ace in name, but he has not had the same overpowering stuff he had for much of the last three years. Bieber’s strikeout rate has decreased yearly over the previous four years, and his current 17.6% K rate is well below the MLB average of 22.1%. Lourdes Gurriel has accumulated ten at-bats against Bieber from his time in the AL with the Toronto Blue Jays. Gurriel has four hits in those ten at-bats, good for a 1.000 OPS. He has also struck out once in that span, despite facing him mostly in years where Bieber’s K rate was among the league’s elite.
Gurriel entered Friday slugging .548 against right-handed pitching this season, which is seventh-best in MLB among all qualified hitters. The Over is 5-1-1 in Arizona’s last seven games against a right-handed starter, and it is 12 games over .500 (29-17) against righties as opposed to two games over .500 against lefties (13-11). Furthermore, Gurriel is second on the Arizona Diamondbacks with 39 RBIs, and considering he has driven in at least one run in six of his last 12 games (with multiple RBIs in four of them), we are getting a great price for him to produce at least one RBI.
Blake Snell Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Rays (-145)
San Diego Padres southpaw Blake Snell has seen his strikeout total increase each of his last six starts, culminating with a season-high 12-strikeout performance in his previous start at Coors Field. While the Tampa Bay Rays enter with the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, the offense has regressed somewhat recently, with the 13th-highest strikeout rate overall over the previous 14 days.
Snell has consistently gotten better later in the season throughout his career, as his .407 career winning percentage in the first half of the season pales in comparison to his .674 second-half winning percentage. And while his career 10.4 K/9 rate in June is tied for his lowest in any month, we are encouraged that Snell has recorded at least 18 outs in three consecutive starts, which raises the ceiling for his strikeout potential.
Tampa Bay has averaged 4.9 runs per game over the last ten games, much lower than its 5.63 season-long runs per game average. The Under has cashed each of Snell’s previous five starts against teams with a losing record, and we expect him to do his part to keep Tampa Bay’s run production at a premium, given its recent relative struggles.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.